Shanghai Daoqin Plastics Co., Ltd.

【导语】近期国际形势剧烈震荡, large fall, ethylene method PVC cost 也跟随 obvious decline, rear ethylene method PVC is will for China electrical method PVC形 formed impact formed is and must 考虑 一 important issues.

近期国际形势剧烈震荡, 美股一周之 inner 两次熔断, 国际原油回落至历 history low 位. 黑天鹅事 parts 一 接一, investment 者眼花缭乱, 应接不暇.

面 for complex full 球形势, PVC from 业人员风险意识不断 improve/increase. separation market and 者开始考虑 ethylene material is for electrical material formed impact can can property. 毕竟2008 year lower semi year electrical method enterprise large 面积停产, industry most low construction start negative drop 至30% left right, 而同期 ethylene method enterprise basic negative 荷, stability still 然历历 in 目.

about/regarding ethylene material for inner market effect/influence, market and 者关注 comparison more main/primary in below/following 三 方面.

1.PVC cost versus 当 情况 lower, and electrical price for 应关系.

2.随 原油 large fall, outer PVC Imported material price is large fall, is for inner market formed obvious impact?

3.随 原油 large fall, inner ethylene method PVC enterprise cost is large decline?

针 for upper issues, 我们逐一 analysis lower:

1.PVC cost versus 当 情况 lower, and electrical price for 应关系

due to effect/influence PVC cost factors remove 原油, electrical 石两 变 amount outer, also has very more other factors, other several amount main/primary is rate, salt price, electrical and other. therefore need 想搞清原油 and electrical for 应关系, 我们必 must false rate, salt price, electrical is stability. currently rate 6.9, salt price 160元/吨, electrical 价0.45元 is 例 话, and electrical for 应关系如 lower:

据测算, electrical cost generally in 2500-2600元/吨, in recent years electrical most large 承受 亏 loss in 200元/吨 left right, therefore generally electrical price very difficult drop 至2300元/吨. can 见, drop 至50美元/桶 below/following rear, from 炼油开始 ethylene method PVC cost will 逐步体现, price low, ethylene method cost advantages obvious.

2.随 原油 price large fall, outer PVC Imported material price is large fall, for inner market formed obvious impact?

PVC Imported material for inner market formed low impact must meanwhile meet/satisfy below/following conditions.

第一 conditions is policy 允许, this conditions from year already meet/satisfy, 2003 year China for outer main/primary 产销国实施 anti-dumping, add upper in 间三次调查期, China for outer PVC anti-dumping policy 一共实施16 year. in 2019 year 9 month 29 day PVC anti-dumping policy positive 式取消, this 标志 国 inner PVC Imported to China market large already 经打开.

第二 conditions is cost advantages 出现, through upper analysis, 随 原油 large fall rear, from 炼油开始 ethylene method PVC cost advantages already 经开始 obvious 体现. outer Imported material cost will large decline, outer PVC cost advantages this conditions already meet/satisfy, cost advantages is long in still 不确定.

第三 conditions is outer PVC supply pressure increase, in low export 意愿. currently this conditions obvious, 但随 国际公共卫生事 parts add heavy, outer demand decrease low can can property obvious increase, rear troubleshooting outer PVC price obvious decline can can. Formosa Plastics will 公布4 month price, Formosa Plastics price will for future market price formed obvious 指导意义. currently USA FAS休斯顿855美元/吨, 亚洲货源CFR China 850美元/吨 price 核算折 combined 人民币 to China still in 7500元/吨, 7050元/吨, obvious high inner price. rear make USA and 亚洲货源 price large fall rear, low 价货源进入 to China market still need 1-2 month time.

therefore for/regarding issues, policy conditions, cost conditions already meet/satisfy, outer also 未出现 obvious large 于求 局面, outer PVC price obvious high inner price, rear if outer PVC price supply pressure, price large 跌, will has can can for China market formed impact, low 价货源进入 China market less need 1-2 month time.

3.随 原油 large fall, inner ethylene method PVC enterprise cost is large decline?

China main/primary is electrical method enterprise is 主, to 2019 year year 底, electrical method PVC占 ratio 81.88%, ethylene method PVC占 ratio 18.12%. China PVC raw materials main/primary Imported is 主, Imported ethylene, Imported VCM, from 炼油开始 has 齐鲁石化一家, remove outer also has is made alcohol made ethylene 路线.

由 table/sheet 2 can 见, inner main/primary is Imported ethylene and Imported VCM is 主, in main/primary comparison lower this types cost 变化情况.

from Imported ethylene ethylene method PVC cost and electrical method cost comparison 看, year lower semi year 以, Imported ethylene method PVC cost low 于山东 electrical method PVC cost. 2018 year lower semi year 开始, ethylene capacity expansion production capacity large 幅释放, ethylene price 跌势形 formed, CFR远东 ethylene price from 2018 year lower semi year most high 1400美元/吨连续 fall, to currently already 经跌至640美元/吨 left right. to Imported ethylene to need 一定 船期, cost generally use month front ethylene price, currently ethylene method PVC cost in 5500元/吨 left right, month ethylene price large 幅回落, currently CFR ethylene price already 经跌至640美元/吨, rear low ethylene to 货, 以640美元/吨 ethylene price 计算, ethylene method PVC cost will decline 至5000元/吨, will ratio inner electrical method PVC呈现 obvious price advantages.

from Imported VCM路线 PVC cost 走势 看, in recent years market VCM supply and demand still balanced 状态, 2018 year Imported VCM price 一直处于偏 high water 平震荡. 也导致国 inner Imported VCM路线 PVC enterprise cost relatively high. 同样考虑 to to VCM to 货船期 issues, using/adopting month front VCM price currently PVC cost, currently PVC cost in 6650元/吨 left right, high electrical method PVC cost. 而近一 month 以, VCM Imported lower slip 80美元/吨 left right, low 价VCM货源 to 货, most new VCM to 港价710美元/吨计算, Imported VCM PVC enterprise cost in 6400元/吨, still high electrical method PVC cost.

总体 看, 随 原油 price large decline, rear Imported material low impact inner market can can property already relatively large, true positive to China market less need in 1-2 month rear. Imported ethylene PVC cost advantages separation obvious, enterprise overall 规模不 large, for market impact versus for relatively small, Imported VCM陆续 enterprise short inner still cost advantages.