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PVC: futures high rear 回落 in stock 存松动预期
进入11 month 份以, 受PVC futures 持续拉涨 effect/influence, in stock market good 转, trade 商出货 price has upper 调,部 separation PVC production enterprise 出厂价也 has upper 调, degree in 50-100元/吨 left right. lower formed relatively front has good 转, 但依旧维持 rigid mono, more low 价货源. 截止11 month 7 day, 华东 区 market electrical method 5 type material 主流报6580-6680元/吨, ethylene material 主流报7000-7300元/吨;华北 区 market 5 type material 主流报6500-6690元/吨, ethylene material 主流报6910-7070元/吨;华南 区 market electrical method 5 type material 主流报6650-6860元/吨, ethylene material 主流报7100-7300元/吨. that 么, lower market market trends how to development 呢? lower 面我们 analysis lower:
from futures 面 看, PVC futures front day upper rear, 续涨动 force 不足, toward upper breakthrough upper 轨即6500一线 pressure, price 出现一定回落. 截止11 month 07 day, large 连PVC futures 2001 combined low 开震荡, 开盘6460, most high 6470, most low 6420, 收盘报6430, 跌35, 跌幅0.54%. formed amount 报128232手, amount decrease/reduce 15400手至309134手. technology upper 看, KDJ indicators will formed 死叉, MACD indicators 红柱进一步 shrink short, 宝塔线出现做空 indicators, 显示空方 force amount reinforcement. expected short inner PVC futures still has narrow lower can can. upper 方关注6500一线 pressure, lower 方关注6350-6400一线支撑. as upper, 建议空 mono can 谨慎持 has.
利 good factors: separation PVC production enterprise still in 检修, 例如山东东岳PVC plant/unit 检修以 and 唐山三友, new 疆天业PVC plant/unit 轮修, supply versus for decrease low; ethylene method enterprise 货源偏紧, sales good, enterprise 暂时封盘. Hanwha 宁波;华东以 and 华南PVC社会库存继续 decline, 商家出货 pressure large.
利空 factors: lower products enterprise 接货略 has good 转, still rigid 需, more low 价货源 is 主; electrical price decline, for PVC cost force decrease low; China for 美, day and other anti-dumping 税, inner price upper 调, and outer price expand large, for market has 一定利空 effect/influence.
comprehensive upper 述, 塑米城认 is 受PVC futures low effect/influence, PVC market price will has lower can can, 但受部 separation good factors 支撑, expected fall 空间不 large. rear still 需随时关注 macro 面, futures 走势, policy and lower 游接货 and other effect/influence.
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