Shanghai Daoqin Plastics Co., Ltd.

        四季 degree inner polyolefin new production capacity pressure, supply 端面临 relatively large increase amount 预期, outer market expand can high 峰, price 持续承 pressure, Imported pressure has increase decrease, especially is PE market more is significantly. demand 方面, plastics lower construction start 处于偏 low water 平, demand overall low year, PP lower construction start can, automotive output/production volume negative growth and home appliances output/production volume increase speed effect/influence, degree demand difficult 言乐观. from value 看, upper semi year 神华包头 and in can and other chemical industry production cost in 5100—5700区间, sales gross profit still ultra- 1500元/吨, toward comparison polyolefin in chemical industry product in high 估状态.

         therefore, degree polyolefin in supply wide and macro low lower, market price heavy still has lower 行空间.

        四季 degree inner supply increase

        2019 year inner PE plan start production 6 sleeve/set plant/unit, and production capacity 238 10,000 tons / year, its in can product already in 6 month market, in combined 也于9 month achieve amount sales, 宝丰二期 expected 10 month 试车, large 美, 浙石化 and Hengli plan in degree start production. although separation plant/unit can can 延期, front new increase production capacity in degree in still will belt/tape less increase amount supply.

        2019 year inner PP plan start production 8 sleeve/set plant/unit, and production capacity 347 10,000 tons / year, its in 卫星石化, can and Hengli already start production, in 安9 month 开始商业运行, positive expected 10 month amount 产, plan 10 month 开车, large and 浙石化 plan degree start production. currently 看, degree positive 源, in and product has in market.

        今 year is 石化检修 small year, especially is PE product types, low rate 也导致 output/production volume large growth, its in 1—8 month PE累计 output/production volume growth 12.9%(year 2.2%), property growth 13.1%(year -9.7%). currently 看, degree plan force degree large, front 期停车 plant/unit will in 9 month 底陆续 heavy 启, in new production capacity and 检修回归背景 lower, market supply pressure can can 进一步凸显.

        借助于 plant/unit 检修窗口, meanwhile add large sales force degree, currently 石化烯烃库存 already drop year inner low 位, low 库存支撑 short market price. 不, month plant/unit heavy 启, market supply 逐步回归, lower already has separation 存货, has heavy new 开启累库, especially is long false rear will obvious 累库.

         Imported again degree 开启

        2019 year outer is polyolefin start production large year, PE, PP plan new increase production capacity 529 10,000 tons / year, 305 10,000 tons / year. from time 看, outer start production in in lower semi year, separation new plant/unit will China is main/primary export, this will add large inner market supply pressure.

        海关 data 显示, 1—7 month PE累计 Imported 952.3 10,000 tons, year-on-year growth 18.2%, LLDPE累计 Imported 303.1 10,000 tons, year-on-year growth 24.9%. outer market supply wide 松, 导致美金报价承 pressure, currently Imported again degree 开启, 随 四季 degree outer production capacity 释放, PE Imported pressure has increase decrease, especially is competition low material market.

        海关 data 显示, 1—7 month PP累计 Imported 284.4 10,000 tons, year-on-year growth 6.4%(year growth -3.3%). 8 month lower 旬以, due to inner price elastic, inner outer 价差转入顺挂, Imported again degree 开启, combined time 核算, expected 10 month to amount month-on-month has increase.

         lower demand 预期趋 low

         data 显示, 1—8 month plastics products output/production volume 6066.9 10,000 tons, year-on-year growth 8.1%, export 925.8 10,000 tons, year-on-year growth 11.0%. from 第三方调研 看, 7 month, 8 month output/production volume high growth can can and export has 关, plan 10 month will for 剩余商 product add tariff, degree export in 回落预期.

        就PE 看, lower film production 旺季, construction start rate improves, 10 month lower rear 见顶回落, packaging film production basic 平稳. versus for 而言, year lower negative 荷处于偏 low water 平, demand overall low year.

        PP方面, lower injection molding negative relatively high, 塑编, BOPP construction start positive 常区间, environmental protection and demand effect/influence, future lower construction start improves has 限.

         from 终端 看, PP modified demand in in automotive, home appliances and other industry, 1—8 month inner automotive output/production volume 1593.9万台, year-on-year decline 12.1%, main/primary home appliances output/production volume 38058.9万台, year-on-year growth 5.0%.

         lower semi year automotive output/production volume drop has narrow, negative growth trend still difficult 以改变, main/primary home appliances output/production volume increase speed 自5 month 起亦持续回落, in currently market ring lower, degree demand large rate 延续趋 low 预期.

         industry sales gross profit high 位

         upper company report 显示, upper semi year 神华包头 polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP) mono production cost separation is 5164元, 5076元, in can polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP) mono sales cost separation is 5619元, 5440元, sales gross profit in 1470—2140元/吨 high water 平.

        横 toward comparison, polyolefin in has chemical industry product in profit non thick. large project start production, polyolefin supply and demand landscape has toward wide 松, industry profit will by pressure shrink.

        操 as 策略: polypropylene (PP) in 8200附近 can separation 步建立空 mono, target/goal 点位7700—7900附近, loss based on 建仓价 setting. 风险提示: plant/unit start production 推迟, 沙特事 parts, macro ultra- 预期 policy effect/influence.