Shanghai Daoqin Plastics Co., Ltd.

        原油 supply 端进一步 shrinkage difficult degree add large, PX new plant/unit upper 马, PTA库存持续累积, in upper factors pressure made lower, PTA can 偏空交 easy.

        1 month 以, PTA maintain strong/high 运行态势, 1905 combined from 5560元/吨涨至6700元/吨. analysis rise causes, main/primary has 三: its 一, price strong/high; its 二, PX维持 high profit; its 三, PTA processing profit increase thick. rear, 受福海创复工 effect/influence, 2 month 13 day 夜盘, PTA脱离 and 原油共振 模式, large low. for/regarding rear 市逻辑, analysis lower:

        原油 price adjustment 风险

        1 month, OPEC总 output/production volume is 3080.6万桶/ day, month-on-month decline 79.7万桶/ day. OPEC output/production volume decrease/reduce, 一方面源于沙特, 阿联酋, 科威特 and other decrease 产执行 rate relatively high, its in 沙特称3 month 会进一步 decrease 产40万桶/ day, 至980万桶/ day;另一方面源于伊朗 and inner output/production volume lower slip.

         non OPEC方面, 截至2 month 15 day, USA output/production volume increase 至1200万桶/ day, 该国原油库存 is 4.54512 100 million 桶, relatively front increase 367万桶. in addition, 1 month, 俄罗斯 output/production volume decrease/reduce 4.2万桶/ day, is its in agreement in 承诺23万桶/ day decrease output/production volume separation 之一.

        OPEC+ decrease 产, market issues has understanding. based on data 测算, currently amount is 20万桶/ day. supply 剩转变 is 供不应求寄希望于 supply ultra- 预期 decline. however, 近期, USA output/production volume increase, export volume high 于预期, degree a large amount of Imported inner 瑞拉原油, this factors increase supply 端进一步 shrinkage difficult degree, market stage/phase property adjustment pressure.

        PX processing profit will long low

         year 7 month, and Vietnam new plant/unit unstable, PX production capacity 投放不足, price fast speed rise, and 石脑油 价差也随之拉 large, most high 至630美元/吨, rear in 550美元/吨附近.

         full market for 二甲苯 production capacity increase, expected 2022 year can to 6900 10,000 tons / year, demand amount expected is 5100 10,000 tons / year, production capacity 剩, especially is in 东北亚 区, production capacity issues 突出. year is 我国PX production capacity large year, Hengli plan start production sleeve/set PX plant/unit, sleeve/set plant/unit plan 3 month 底打通 process/workflow, force achieve 开车, sleeve/set plant/unit plan in sleeve/set plant/unit start production month rear 排产. 浙石化4000 10,000 tons / year 炼化一体化 project engineering decrease pressure plant/unit already 开始首次进油 as 业. expected month 底, green 石化基 一期 project formed start production. 届时, can achieve 2000 10,000 tons / year can force. PX new plant/unit upper 马, PX and 石脑油 价差 will long low.

         short 期PTA供 large 于需

        节 rear, PTA继续累库, currently in 110 10,000 tons. PTA plant/unit construction start rate improves 至80%, polyester plant/unit construction start rate in 76%, PTA month degree 累库30 more 10,000 tons.

         supply 方面, chemical industry 贸于2 month 13 day improve/increase construction start rate;逸盛宁波于2 month 15 day fault/failure drop negative formed, currently positive production;扬子石化检修 plant/unit expected heavy 启; Hengli 石化原 plan 1 month plant/unit 推迟至3 month 初检修. overall upper, PTA检修 plant/unit less, supply stage/phase.

         demand 方面, currently, has 8 sleeve/set plant/unit rise temperature heavy 启, and production capacity 243 10,000 tons / year, polyester industry construction start rate improve/increase 至76%. 不, day, polyester 厂家 平均产销仅 in 10%—30%, separation relatively good 厂家产销也 has 40%—60%. demand positive 式启动, 导致涤纶 long filament 库存累积. statistics data 显示, filament in 18—25天.

        结 combined upper analysis, PTA market short more 空转换. as upper, high light 仓拦截空 mono, separation 追空. 待原油 adjustment rear or PX profit 跌势形 formed rear, add large PTA mono amount.