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MMA反 elastic difficult 持久
进入4 month 份, methacrylic acid ester (MMA) price 跌至历 history most low 7000元(吨价, lower 同), production enterprise 处于严 heavy loss 状态, plant/unit drop negative 荷运行. 近期随 厂家 decrease 产挺价以 and lower 游终端补仓, MMA market 迎 久违 反 elastic market trends. 但笔者认 is, 四方面 factors will make 此次反 elastic difficult 持久.
一 is supply increase. 近期, in cost high and heavy loss 情况之 lower, inner MMA production enterprise more upper 调出厂价, decrease/reduce 自身亏 loss. therefore, inner MMA market 也筑底 small upper 扬, price heavy 回7500元 water 平. 不, 4 month in lower will 试运行 浙江石化9 10,000 tons / year MMA plant/unit or add inner overall supply 充裕 局面, market upper pressure increase, MMA反 elastic rear obvious 不足.
二 is demand low 迷. new 冠肺炎疫情 effect/influence, automotive, 房 产 and other and MMA密切关联 lower 游终端 industry overall sales 情况处于 low 迷状态. degree automotive amount year-on-year separation decline 45.2% and 42.4%. another, coating material, 房 产 industry construction start and sales 也均受 to 疫情 不利 effect/influence. lower 游终端各 industry overall production sales low decrease MMA实际订 mono and sales amount improves. in demand has obvious improvement lower, MMA market rise market trends 根基不牢.
三 is export difficult 以顺畅. 随 疫情 in world 各 蔓延, outer MMA demand 也呈现萎 shrink 态势, market price low fall. in outer MMA supply 面越发充裕 情况 lower, inner MMA and its lower product export mono amount large shrink decrease. 1~2 month, 我国MMA export volume has 6533.46吨, relatively year lower slip 7.84%. degree 区封锁 rear, separation inner enterprise toward its 交付 订 mono again degree rear, enterprise pressure add large, 令MMA market upper anionic 霾.
四 is upper 游支撑 has 限. from 4 month 9 day 晚间起, 经历 逾期3天 frequency 繁协商, OPEC+会议 most formed agreement: 自5 month 1 day 起原油 will decrease 产970万桶/ day, is 期2 month. for/regarding 因疫情造 formed demand shrink 而言, decrease degree and 预期, difficult 提振原油 market. in addition, currently still 处于蔓延 stage/phase, demand still will to impact, full 球经济 and chemical industry product market relatively large pressure, MMA market 掉头回撤风险 add large.
