Shanghai Daoqin Plastics Co., Ltd.

in decrease agreement can formed 一致意见 and 受疫情 effect/influence lower, 3 month 9 day full melt market 暴跌. 当天, 美股罕见熔断, large ultra- 2000点, futures ultra- 30%跌破30美元, 10 year 期美债收益 rate 跌破0.4%创历 history new low.

3 month 12 day, this again heavy 现. full melt market 暴跌, USA and other 11国股市出现熔断, futures large 跌, metal 黄金白银也未 can 幸免.

原油 price for/regarding 整 石油 chemical industry industry chain can 谓牵一发而动 full 身. that large for chemical industry and material industry specific has which effect/influence 呢?

油价 fall for upper 游石油 enterprise generate most effect/influence, belt/tape short negative impact. for 石油依存 degree high 消费国 说, China enterprise although short 期会受 to impact, long can can 受益于 low 油价, is this large reduce cost.

in addition, fall, in 一定程 degree upper extrusion new can 源消费, from 而不利于 new can industry. effect/influence is let 燃油车 more easy by new can automotive substitute/replace. another, extrusion other can 源 消费, 不利于天然 gas, electrical, water electrical and other can enterprise.

for other industry 说, is 受益, 毕竟油价 decline can reduce can consumption cost, especially is 交通运输业 and chemical industry product production enterprise cost formed good. 每一轮油价 large 幅波动都会推动 industry “ excellent poor 汰”, is lower stage/phase, excellent enterprise can through 规模, and Brand and other advantages, achieve expand and improves market has rate.

from market degree 看, for/regarding 以炼化 enterprise is 首 石化 industry chain lower enterprise 而言, cost large degree reduce, plastics, 橡胶, 轮胎, 农药化肥, and other industry 会直接受益, has this industry expand production, reduce product price, its improvement degree need industry 定价权掌握 and 否而定.   

以 plastics products 业以例, Raw Materials is basic product ratio polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP) and other, but also raw materials cost production cost specific gravity very large, 油价变化 for its effect/influence relatively large. industry in gas toward lower cycle lower, plastics （PP, PS, ABS and other ）, combined formed and other product price in history low 位, cost price decline good lower modified plastics, and other industry can force improves. 另一方面, modified plastics and as is rigid property demand product, its 自身存 in relatively is growth demand, will maintain relatively high gas degree.

油价 fall, upstream and downstream industry 也会逐步 increase 商业库存, Imported more low 价 原油, reduce future industry chain cost from in 获益.

versus ratio chemical industry industry in machine, 逆流而 upper 求索, price fall for/regarding 航运, material and other industry good, 则显 “直白” many.

据招商证券测算, 以18 year data is 例, 每当油价 decline 10%, 南航, 国航, 东航航油 cost will separation decrease/reduce 43/38/34 100 million yuan, 占各自营业 cost specific gravity 约3%.

in full 球限硫令 rigid rigid 执行 当 lower, 油价 波动 for 航运业 effect/influence, ratio 以往任何时候都 need large.

船 use procurement 一直占航运业 cost large 头, large can has reduce procurement cost, from increase company profit, 但油价不断 decline meanwhile, 也会出现航运 market fall 状况, high low effect/influence to company profit, also has 待观察.  因 is positive let full supply 链进入 to melt machine 甚至信 use machine.

demand 端衰退 already formed in long trend, price most also is supply and demand 决定, in 2020 year 经济疲 low meanwhile, 集装箱船 总体运 force will large increase.  国际油价 fall, 势必会拉 low 我国原油 Imported and cost, formed product price decline, for/regarding 卡车司 machine 说无疑 is parts good 事情.