Shanghai Daoqin Plastics Co., Ltd.

day front 受原油 large effect/influence, market relatively large 跌幅, is for price separation 敏感 橡胶 plastics sheet/plate block table/sheet versus for relatively strong/high. 整 sheet/plate block full fall 16.66点, is 1.28% sheet/plate block most 终收报于1287.56点. although sheet/plate block 也以绿盘坐收, is versus for/regarding other 股跌幅 versus for relatively small. currently from technology 形态 看, plastics sheet/plate block still to 5 day 均线 良 good 支撑.

原油暴跌 for plastics industry to effect/influence

石油输出国组织（欧佩克） and 以俄罗斯 is non 欧佩克产油国就原油 production policy 谈判失败 rear, full melt market large 幅震荡. 布伦特原油 futures large 幅跳空 low 开, 开盘跌25%, rear ultra- 31%. in front 油价就 already has versus degree 跌幅. statistics, 2 month 以 油价 large decline, month-on-month 跌幅达 to 12.9%. 2 month 油价曾一 degree small elastic, its rear 受 new 冠疫情 full expand dispersion add 剧原油 demand effect/influence, large fall 走势, 布伦特原油均价 in 2 month to 55.48 美元/桶, month-on-month decline 12.9%. 2 month 底油价 already drop 至2017 year 9 month most low water 平.

currently water for chemical industry industry is comparison price 区间, plastics industry production capacity expand add demand belt/tape supply and demand issues will 继续主导 industry 走势, in decline low 位, industry in gas toward lower cycle lower, plastics （PP, PS, ABS and other ）, combined formed and other product price in history low 位, cost price decline good lower modified plastics and other industry can force improves. 另一方面, plastics and as is rigid property demand product, its 自身存 in relatively is growth demand, therefore industry production will maintain relatively high gas degree.

层层传导, for PS market effect/influence force decrease

3 month 6 day 欧佩克 and 俄罗斯 expand large decrease 产谈判失败, 原油跌势 heavy 启, 周一开盘美原油 day inner low and 27.34美元/桶, market 看空氛围骤 concentrated, large product price fall. 层层传导 rear, PS price difficult fall trend.

from upper in can 看出, tube/pipe and PS price related property strong/high low, 但两者 price most high related 系数一 degree in 2014 year to 0.93, 2018 year high 达0.72, 且2008-2019 year overall related 系数达 to 0.77, positive related property relatively strong/high. tube/pipe 2019 year related low 至0.18, difficult in currently in 挽救PS 跌势, 自周末原油 large 跌以, PS market from 业者纷纷 poly 焦原油.

历次原油 price statistics

2014 year 6 month 沙特发动 price 战, from lower in can 看出, 6 month 27 day 开始原油 price large fall, PS当即未积极跟跌, in semi month fall rear, 7 month 16 day 开始跌幅放缓, PS横盘整理态势 以延续. 8 month 初原油 new 一轮跌势开始, PS in 经历 7 month sales rear difficult 以继续挺价, 随即展开跌势.

筑底 in 偷袭, PS market heavy heavy

春节 rear, PS production enterprise 累库严 heavy, 经 近一 month 消化, 石化厂库存逐步转移至 trade and separation lower factory, separation achieve 消化, PS price in process in 逐步筑底. 随 PS lower factory has 序 复工, in 经历 2 month low negative 荷运行 rear, 3 month 份开始石化厂纷纷 improves construction start negative 荷, PS price has 望筑底 rear 展开反 elastic , 但随 原油 again deep 跌, PS price again low.

受助于石化厂 积极挺价, and short demand true 空（ upper 周PS trade amount large increase, separation lower large amount procurement ）, PS short fall degree has 限, 但反观油价 fall causes, for PS lower factory export mono add deep, demand for PS price effect/influence will by large, PS price rise 通道 开启 will more more lower factory mono 恢复情况.