Shanghai Daoqin Plastics Co., Ltd.

国务院总理李克 strong/high 2 month 11 day 主持召开国务院常务会议, 进一步部署 in full force 以赴抓 good anti meanwhile, add strong/high 经济运行调 degree and adjustment, more good 保障供 to.

fine lower:

一 is classification has 序推动 enterprise 复工复产.

二 is focus/key point medical anti material production enterprise fast reaching capacity, solution equipment, 人工, 资金, material and other issues, add strong/high supply and demand for and 统一调配, ensure anti need.

三 is made solution/scheme has 序组织务工人员返岗. main/primary 劳务输出 and need good 农民工 and other focus/key point 人群返岗 for and 服务. positive for outer and 人员“一刀切”劝返 and other method.

四 is 各 各部门 need enterprise for 疫情专项帮扶 mechanism, understanding enterprise especially is 民营, small micro enterprise difficult.

五 is 落实 方“菜篮子”, “米 bag 子” negative made, add strong/high 粮油菜 and 肉蛋奶 and other active product production supply, method 查处哄抬 material and other method is.

六 is strong/high electrical gas 运保障, 切实保障 important dry and key/critical material 流枢纽 positive 常运行, relatively light need in good anti front lower, has 序恢复公路客运班线, 城市公交 and other 服务.

七 is heavy large project construction start and construction.

八 is high degree 关注就业 issues, anti large 规模裁员.

据公开资 material 显示, full already has ultra- 20余 省市 区发文 announcement construction start time, separation still in 打 “ resistant 击疫情” 旗号, 封村封路, retardant 碍复工.

is more good in for has good production supply as 做出指示, 山东, 江苏, and other more 省陆续出台保障 measures, especially in 交通运输保障 upper made 定 实施 solution/scheme.

疫情 for plastics industry effect/influence

is in small enterprise excellent understanding difficult, 工信部 launch 20 strip/profile policy measures. 并印发 《 about/regarding for new type 冠状病毒肺炎疫情帮助 in small enterprise 复工复产共渡 difficult has as notice 》.

明确 will full force enterprise has 序复工复产, 进一步 add strong/high for in small enterprise 财政扶持, 进一步 add strong/high for in small enterprise melt 扶持, 进一步 add strong/high for in small enterprise innovation 支持, 进一步 add strong/high for in small enterprise 公共服务, 进一步 add strong/high 统筹协调 and other 六方面20 strip/profile measures, 帮助广 large in small enterprise 坚定信心, strong/high measures, achieve has 序复工复产, difficult 关.

future stage/phase, large factors will effect/influence development.

for plastics industry 说, 受疫情 effect/influence, currently enterprise 复工进程缓 slow, its 次终端消费 product demand has shrink.

据ICIS data 显示, currently plastics products processing enterprise negative 荷仅维持 in 30-60%, low construction start rate very can can 延续至2 month 底. 若疫情拐点 in 3 month front to, 3 month plastics processing and products enterprise construction start rate will slow rise, still will low 于以往 water 平. expected Q1 degree inner PE demand loss amount is 150 10,000 tons, relatively year demand decline 15%; PP demand loss amount is 120吨, relatively year demand decline 16.5%. PVC终端 products industry 2 month construction start rate can can in 3 formed left right, 2 month demand ratio year decrease/reduce 30-50%.

and meanwhile, demand and material 流 掣肘, related industry 普遍开始 drop negative for 困境. pure 苯主流 lower styrene, 苯酚, caprolactam, amine and other factory drop negative 10%-30%不 and other, 2 month pure demand loss expected less 14.6 10,000 tons, relatively decline 12%.

its in most large lower styrene factory negative decline 5% left right, 2 month output/production volume expected decrease/reduce 3.7 10,000 tons left right, styrene lower 游ABS and PS decrease force degree more large, 65% ABS factory and 40% PS factory decrease 产, front or rear heavy 启.

in front, ABS factory and PS factory remove plan outer, 一直处于接近满 negative 荷状态.

据ICIS测算, 2 month styrene demand loss amount is 11.7 10,000 tons, relatively decrease/reduce 16-17%; styrene 社会库存 will less new increase 8 10,000 tons.

2 month alcohol demand expected month-on-month fall 16%, especially is 运输不畅导致甲 alcohol and MTBE industry effect/influence more is obvious. separation alcohol factory 亦同步 drop negative, expected 2 month output/production volume decline 5% left right, market supply and demand balanced in 2 month is 富余, 3-4 month is 缺口状态, value in 3 10,000 tons left right. this is for China main/primary active will 陆续于2 month 底恢复 预期.

ICIS expected 2020 year China alcohol demand amount relatively front lower 调3%至7100 10,000 tons left right.

polyester factory in year front rear most low construction start rate in 70%, currently construction start water already 经跌至60% left right, expected 2 month output/production volume decrease/reduce 约72 10,000 tons left right, full year output/production volume or therefore decrease/reduce 1%-1.5%.

PTA and ethylene glycol lower polyester factory drop negative effect/influence demand 回落, ICIS测算2 month China ethylene glycol demand relatively front fall 20%, PTA demand decrease/reduce 15% left right.

electrical method PVC supply construction start rate currently already relatively front fall 5%至70% left right. ICIS expected, 至2 month 底, inner electrical method PVC construction start rate or fall 2-3%, overall 2 month output/production volume loss large in 14-20 10,000 tons, large month degree output/production volume 8-12%.

总体 看, due to upstream and downstream material material balanced, for/regarding upper raw materials mono consumption more large product negative adjustment has 限, negative balanced upper raw materials 任务, ratio 如PE, PP.

而 that Raw Materials more and upstream and downstream non 一体化配 sleeve/set product, negative adjustment more large, ratio 如ABS.

plastics industry 2020 machine 会

plastics industry, has demand still large. 此次疫情 effect/influence plastics industry main/primary has 两:

from 2020 year full year 看, 一方面受 year low effect/influence, 2019 year China chemical chemical industry industry gas already 进入底部区域, 2019 year profit year-on-year reduce 25.6%, profit reduce most performance is large separation product price already 经远远 low history 平均价位, separation already 经跌入历 history price rear 10%.

industry already has obvious 回落, lower 行 空间 non has 限, 2020 year overall price toward upper rate relatively large, especially is overall large product price lower 行, upper raw materials product 之王 原油 price in relatively large, to 23% left right, WTI most high 65.65美元/桶 to 跌破 50美元/桶, 以原油 is raw materials chemical industry enterprise cost 同步跟随 large decline, 直接导致 industry profit 会出现一定程 degree elastic.

currently polyolefin industry most large difficult is made material 流运输 and lower comprehensive 复产受限, 累库远远 ultra- 预期 ultra- 往 year, upper 游 库 pressure large. separation enterprise drop negative can understanding pressure 远远不够, 远远不 can fast speed remove 库存, through price 库也因 is material causes 暂时执行困 difficult heavy heavy. can resistant and other 疫情, material 流运输恢复 positive 常, lower comprehensive construction start 运行.

polyolefin industry outlook/prospects made 于疫情 development 态势, Q1 degree is full year most difficult 时期, large 库存巨 large pressure, most time, 一定会迎 曙 light.

总体 看, and “ non 典”时期 versus ratio, currently growth ring 境, industry structure and policy 刺激空间都 already 发生变化, 当疫情结束之 rear, growth will very fast to basic 面决定 positive 常轨道 upper.

plastics industry 一定会否极泰, 走出底谷迎 new 生.