Shanghai Daoqin Plastics Co., Ltd.

1 month 15 day, in 美两国经贸团队 共同努 force, in and other and versus heavy upper, in di in USA 首都华盛顿 positive 式签署第一 stage/phase agreement. agreement 提出, in will expand large 自美农 product, can product, industrial made formed product, product Imported, future year Imported 规模, need in 2017 year upper increase less 于2000 100 million USD. agreement in has to polyolefin, related is can product 方面. main/primary liquid 化天然 gas, 原油, and made product, made product liquid 化丙烷, liquid 化丁烷, its it liquid 化石油 gas and liquid 态烃, 石油焦, 石脑油 and alcohol.    

一,   in trade 总体情况 trade 战则两败 combined 则两利 

1999 year to 2019 year, China toward USA export 金额稳步 growth, 自2017 year USA trade 战, 2018 year China toward USA export still growth, is 2019 year 出现 回落, year-on-year reduce 12.5%.   

1999 year to 2019 year, China from USA Imported in 2014 year to rear 开始回落, 2016 year to low 谷开始反 elastic. 2017-2018连续两 year growth, 2019 year lower slip degree relatively large, to 20.9%.   

through in trade comparison, trade for di 方都不利, very obvious China from USA Imported drop more large, USA more more 一点.    

二, in 美经贸 agreement has Imported USA polyolefin  

2017 year China Imported USA polyolefin 情况.   

我国 polyolefin specialized material, polyolefin high property can product from USA, Europe and day Imported, 例如, Dow chemical, ExxonMobil, Borealis, LyondellBasell, Korea SK, Korea LG and other. polyolefin product export volume less, export direction is Southeast Asia and in 东 区, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, its and other.   2017 year China from USA Imported polyethylene (PE) 总计72.93 10,000 tons, its in HDPE is 29.85 10,000 tons, ratio 54%. LLDPE is 12.70 10,000 tons, ratio 26%. LDPE is 15.49 10,000 tons, ratio 20%. polypropylene (PP) China from USA Imported 14.89 10,000 tons, China from USA Imported product high polyolefin product is 主.   

随 China market rise grade, China market more add need high property can material, main/primary Imported is USA and Europe. versus ratio 以往, enterprise more add heavy polyolefin product 差异化 and high property can R&D investment and market 推广, strategy 布局早 already 开始.   USA polyolefin 急需寻找亚洲买家.   USA 2018-2021 year polyolefin production capacity expand high 峰, market is export market, lower 游买家, 离不开 China large Imported market.   2016-2021 year, USA newly built polyethylene (PE) series product combined production capacity 约达875 10,000 tons / year, USA ethylene lower product production can force again upper new 台阶.   

2020 year 1 month 6 day, 利安德 LyondellBasell company USA 克萨斯州拉波特 50 10,000 tons / year Hyperzone polyethylene (PE) new plant/unit currently already 经开始试车. plant/unit cost already ultra- 预期, currently in 9 100 million USD left right.   USA Mexico 湾沿岸 several new chemical industry project positive cost ultra- 支 issues. 该 区 a large amount of newly built project Raw Materials price rise, 工人工资 rise, make separation enterprise construction start rate decline 甚至停工. 不, 利安德 LyondellBasell table/sheet 示, tube/pipe project cost has increase, and other project versus ratio still tool has competition force, therefore selection 开始试车.   

USA new production capacity 投放, in polyolefin market basic saturated and, China is understanding 困之路.   

三, Imported and large has can is  

China made ethylene project or heavy new ethylene main/primary through understanding different type raw materials production. Europe and Japan main/primary using/adopting 石脑油 as raw materials, USA main/primary use as raw materials. in USA, ethylene 52% 自乙烷, 22% 自 light 烃, 5% 自石脑油. in 西欧, ethylene 71% 自石脑油, 各11% 自 light and LPG, 仅7% 自乙烷.   

and 石脑油 is raw materials made ethylene versus ratio, 乙烷裂 understanding in ethylene rate and property 方面均 has relatively large advantages. USA a large amount of export, not only increase world other ethylene production raw materials active property, meanwhile reduce ethylene production cost.   China, degree and Africa is world polyethylene (PE) main/primary Imported and 区, its in China full Imported 份额 55% left right; in 东, 北美, day, and other is polyethylene (PE) main/primary export and 区.   

2017−2022 year, 随 北美 ethylene and lower polyethylene (PE) and other production capacity 释放, export trade will from 2016 year 15% improve/increase 至30% left right, in 东份额 will from 60% decline 至40% left right.   

currently polyethylene (PE) 资源约占 China Imported amount 6% left right, due to polyethylene (PE) cost tool has for advantages, if has this separation Imported 资源, market will separation inner and day, and other high cost 资源补充, therefore 北美资源 进入, will low inner price 5% -8%  

remove has Imported upper raw materials outer, also has China export plastics products. this is di 赢局面.   

四, in agreement formed is di polyolefin investment 如火如荼 

一方面 Imported made ethylene and Imported made propylene or ethylene project can 顺利展开, 一方面 plastics products export machine heavy new 打开. currently China project ethylene year production capacity 1220 10,000 tons above, consumption will to 1500 10,000 tons. USA 特意修建 export 乙烷港口 year can force 1000 10,000 tons.   

from 2017 year 11 month 开始截止至2018 year 2 month, USA company and China has company already speed lower 三 乙烷 export large mono, combined 计乙烷 supply 720 10,000 tons / year. gas revolutionary to USA belt/tape 丰富, low 廉 乙烷资源, China is full most large market. 2017 year China polyethylene (PE) Imported amount 1179.4 10,000 tons, year-on-year increase 18.6%. 2017 year China ethylene glycol Imported amount ultra- 800万, ethylene mono in China dilute 缺.   

Imported made ethylene and Imported made propylene, tool has cost advantages, especially is 油价越 high, cost obvious, made in cost upper has 一拼. 据测算, USA export China generally 签订10 year left right long mono, Imported price basic in 200-300美元/吨, rear also product market 走势. light made also market 说 算.