Shanghai Daoqin Plastics Co., Ltd.

1 month 13 day,国家 high 端智库 China group technology research in 北京举办《2019 year inner outer gas industry development report 》 launch event. report 显示,2019 year,炼油总 can force rise 至8.6 100 million 吨/ year, ethylene 总 can force 首破3000 10,000 tons / year,炼化 can force 剩愈演愈烈. currently in 建, already construction and project 测算,我国2025 year can force will rise 至10.2 100 million 吨/ year, ethylene can force will 破5000 10,000 tons / year, di ultra- USA world 第一位.

comprehensive analysis 2019 year inner outer gas industry development 模式, report is has more features:

国 inner

国 inner output/production volume 止跌回 rise,油 gas for outer degree fast speed improves to made. inner development good 转,2019 year output/production volume 扭转连续几 year decline 势头,达 to 1.91 100 million 吨, increase 幅1.1%;天然 gas output/production volume 估算达 to 1738 100 million 立方米, increase 幅约9.8%. inner gas for outer degree still upper rise,但 fast speed improves to made.

expected 2020 year inner gas output/production volume has separation to 1.94 100 million and 1900 100 million 立方米. add 之国家 development 清洁煤, more can 代油, improve/increase use can power/electricity ratio/proportion and other policy 实施,油 gas for outer degree will 呈平稳 low speed growth 态势.

China formed product 油消费进入 in low speed growth stage/phase, formed product export pressure add large. 2019 year 我国原油 and for outer degree di 破70%,国 inner 汽柴煤三 large formed product 油消费 increase speed multiple causes has 放缓, formed product export pressure add large. 2020 year expected inner formed product demand increase speed 继续放缓,炼油 can force increase decrease, supply will 继续 剩, formed product export can can will breakthrough 6000 10,000 tons, ultra- Korea formed is 亚太 区 most large formed product export 国.

天然 gas 产供储销 system construction new 进展. 2019 year,我国天然 gas production increase speed 9.6%, ultra- Imported increase speed, for outer degree and upper year basic unchanged. 我国天然 gas 基础设施互联互通 focus/key point engineering, LNG接收站接收 can force, gas 库调峰 can force construction obvious 进展. gas market 化改革稳步推进,国 inner gas safety can force obvious improves. 2020 year and rear,随 我国天然 gas market expand large, market degree improves,天然 gas 产供储销 system construction still 需继续不断完善,进一步 improve/increase 资源配置 efficiency and supply can force.

炼 can heavy has toward 炼化一体化 lower low expand 展之势. 2019 year,炼油总 can force rise 至8.6 100 million 吨/ year, ethylene can force 首破3000 10,000 tons / year,炼化 can force 剩愈演愈烈. currently in 建, already construction and project 测算,我国2025 year can force will rise 至10.2 100 million 吨/ year, ethylene can force will 破5000 10,000 tons / year, di ultra- USA world 第一位.

国际油 gas combined as strategy property breakthrough. 2019 year, in 俄东线天然 gas pipeline 历时五 year formed gas, 自俄罗斯 天然 gas will and China 东北, 京津冀 and long 江三角洲主消费 market for 接; China 石化, can 源, new can and other enterprise new more 项LNG long-term supply combined 同. 我国东部天然 gas 主消费 market already formed more gas competition landscape.

油 gas industry market 化改革进程 obvious add fast. 2019 year,政府部门围绕落实《 about/regarding deep 化石油天然 gas made 改革 若 dry 意见》出台 more policy,推进油 gas industry comprehensive 开放. meanwhile comprehensive 推进矿业权 competition let;改革油 gas tube/pipe 网运营 mechanism, tube/pipe in 间放开两头, deep gas price formed mechanism 改革, add strong/high market tube/pipe. gas industry made mechanism already 经打破原 has industry 壁垒, new 政 实施 will 进一步推动 market 化进程.

国际

for full gas market add effect/influence already formed is USA 推行“ USA excellent 先” strategy important 抓手. USA can 源独立, for full 球石油 market force and effect/influence force add strong/high. 欧佩克 internal poly force and overall effect/influence force decline,卡塔尔 and more rear 退出. comprehensive 考虑,尽 tube/pipe 缘政治 factors can can short and local supply 紧张并诱发 price 波动,但 supply and demand basic 面不支持国际油价 obvious high.

full 球天然 gas supply and demand wide 松. 2019 year, full 球天然 gas trade growth 9.1%, and upper year basic unchanged, LNG trade increase speed 12.2%,接近 pipeline gas trade increase speed 2倍. market property 凸显, Europe NBP price and 亚洲LNG in stock 均价都出现40% left right deep degree fall. expected 2020 year, full 球天然 gas supply and demand wide 松, price still will maintain low 位运行, supply and demand 两侧, and new 兴国家 博弈 will add 剧.

report expected,2020 year, full 球经济走势 still will soft,国际油价 will 维持震荡走势,布伦特原油均价 scope/range in 60-65美元/桶区间. for/regarding unstable full macro and 政治局势, especially is USA and main/primary 经济体 trade 争端, in 东 缘政治形势 relatively large 不确定 property,国际油价 year water drop 至50美元/桶 below/following or toward upper breakthrough 75美元/桶 情况也 can can 出现.