Shanghai Daoqin Plastics Co., Ltd.

2019 year, PVC market safety and in effect/influence, supply 偏紧, price in 6300~7000元(吨价, lower 同)区间震荡, high low 价差进一步收 narrow.

for/regarding 2020 year rear 期走势, inner analysis is, inner PVC has new increase production capacity 释放, 终端消费 main/primary field/area 房 产 demand 放缓, supply increase speed high demand increase speed, expected PVC price heavy lower 移. 不, electrical supply 趋紧, price rise effect/influence, cost 存一定支撑, high low or 进一步收 narrow.

东证衍生 product research can chemical industry high grade analysis 师杨枭:

demand increase speed in 3% left right

PVC lower demand 受房 产 industry effect/influence relatively large. 2020 year product sales or 继续底部震荡, 处于略 micro negative growth 状态, this will for PVC demand has 拖累. 但2020 year product and completion amount 会继续 large upper 行, for PVC demand formed 支撑.

comprehensive 看, 2020 year PVC demand or unchanged 稳. 但随 名义GDP increase speed rise, non demand or will 回暖, PVC sheet/plate export for demand 拉动效应也愈发 obvious. expected 2020 year PVC demand increase speed will in 3% left right, low supply increase speed.

PVC demand low large rate 呈渐进式, therefore PVC supply and demand structure can can 会逐步失衡, 但估计 its speed degree relatively slow, degree or relatively small. is, 2020 year PVC futures price in or from 2019 year 6620元 small lower 移至6500元附近.

隆众资讯 electrical analysis 师张仲英:

raw materials price formed 支撑

electrical method PVC占PVC总 production capacity 82% left right, therefore electrical price effect/influence PVC production cost. from 近5 year electrical and electrical method PVC new increase production capacity comparison 看, 2020 year electrical price for PVC market has 支撑.

据隆众资讯 statistics, 2020 year electrical method PVC expected increase production capacity 173 10,000 tons, start production large more in in upper semi year, electrical 石消费 amount 也随之 increase. environmental protection, policy and other factors effect/influence, small plant/unit and rear production capacity basic 处于停产状态, 2019 year electrical output/production volume ratio 2018 year has decrease/reduce. from 2020 year 看, electrical new increase production capacity has 限, mono from this degree 讲, electrical supply 缺口逐渐 expand large, expected 2020 year electrical 石均价 or will high 于2019 year, for PVC底部形 formed 一定支撑.

in addition, 2020 year high speed standards 改变, electrical industry cost increase, to PVC price belt/tape 一定支撑.

隆众资讯PVC analysis 师石磊:

production capacity supply increase

近三 year PVC production capacity 一直处于 growth 态势, output/production volume is year improves. 据隆众 statistics data 显示, 2019 year inner PVC production capacity 达2478 10,000 tons, relatively upper year large growth 近7%;累计 output/production volume 约1983.79 10,000 tons, relatively upper year growth 4.28%, 2020 year expected still will obvious growth trend. statistics, year inner will has 293 10,000 tons PVC new increase production capacity 释放. its in, electrical method production capacity 173 10,000 tons, ethylene method production capacity 120 10,000 tons. according to enterprise plan start production time, expected 2020 year upper semi year PVC国 inner supply still will 维持偏紧状态, lower semi year new increase production capacity 逐步放 amount, inner PVC supply pressure increase.

2020 year inner PVC总 production capacity expected can 达2770 more 10,000 tons, to supply pressure, construction start rate can can ratio upper year need reduce 1 百 separation 点, output/production volume expected can 达2100 10,000 tons.

in addition, 2020 year inner PVC进 export will expand large trend. anti-dumping 税取消, and new increase production capacity 释放, 2020 year 我国PVC Imported amount expected 达90 10,000 tons. 2020 year, inner new increase production capacity a large amount of 投放, 国际PVC price will 维持货紧价 high trend, expected 我国PVC export volume large increase 至80 10,000 tons. 总体 看, 2020 year PVC净 Imported 约10 10,000 tons, make inner market competition pressure 进一步 add large. value is, 《 about/regarding water strip/profile 约》规定, to 2020 year electrical method PVC mono product use amount ratio 2010 year decline 50%, currently inner PVC enterprise through achieve low 汞触媒 use, expected 2020 year PVC production capacity and output/production volume 暂时不会受 to effect/influence. overall 看, 2020 year PVC market supply increase trend.

卓创资讯 analysis 师于江 in:

Imported amount increase large

2016 year 以, 我国PVC market 经历 4 year gas cycle, year 均价不断攀 high, inner price high outer, therefore inner PVC export advantages decrease small, export volume decline. 2020 year inner PVC will capacity expansion large year, demand overall 预期不佳, inner PVC market will has low, expected export volume will low 位整理.

in “一 belt/tape 一路”倡议 推动 lower, although 西北 区 has export excellent policy enterprise add large export, can export excellent policy enterprise more, is large type enterprise, tool has cost advantages, but also has stability lower and trade 商, therefore export increase 幅不会 very large.

Imported 方面, inner PVC Imported main/primary is material processing and material processing methods is 主. 2016~2019 year inner PVC Imported amount in 65万~75 10,000 tons narrow 幅波动. 2019 year 10 month 底, China for 美, day, and Taiwan 区PVC anti-dumping policy 取消, expected 2020 year generally trade Imported amount will increase; meanwhile due to China year Imported PVC in USA 货源占 comparison large, 而2020 year USA has 34 10,000 tons new production capacity 释放, therefore Imported amount will 出现一定程 degree growth. due to inner PVC supply pressure relatively large, Imported amount increase effect/influence obvious.