Shanghai Daoqin Plastics Co., Ltd.

        2019 year China PE期现基差 scope/range relatively 2018 year shrink narrow, 以华北煤 chemical industry 7042 price and LL主 force combined 约结算价基差 看, full year rise water scope/range in 520元/吨以 inner, 且基差 more positive value. 2019 year China PE market supply and demand pressure add large, 7-9 month, in trade scratch rise grade, market 担忧情绪 add heavy, in stock price low lower 行, 并跌破十 year history low 位, stage/phase in stock pressure large futures, 基差处于 negative value.

        进入12 month, PE基差 again negative, from basic 面 看, 12 month China PE plant/unit more 平稳运行, 石化库存 and 港口库存均 drop 至季节 property low water 平, 至12 month 26 day, PE基差 already drop is -260, to year inner low 位. from 期现结 combined degree 看, in stock water futures degree add large, has 利于石化 year 初顺利营造开门红. 12 month 27 day, in 石化华东 rate 先出台部 separation year new 价, from price 变化 看: 1 month 初石化LDPE in 天100PC涨100元/吨, other price 暂稳;LLDPE general purpose material 镇海/扬子(MI=2, 不含开口 agent)稳, 镇海/扬子(MI=2, 含开口 agent)涨50元/吨, LLDPE high 熔涨100元/吨, in combined (MI=2, 不含开口 agent)涨50元/吨, rotational molding drop 100元/吨;HDPE month new 价暂未出台.

         from in 石化华东 year new 价 看, year separation PE货源虽 has 调涨, degree has 限, 且涨价集 in price relatively low grade and separation 货源偏 less 含开口 agent LLDPE(non 常规标 product). 众 周知, year inner polyolefin price lower 行震荡 trend, polyolefin production enterprise profit by pressure shrink, year 底, and 港口库存均 already drop history low 位, stage/phase 期现价差转 negative 且价差 expand large is year 初调涨 belt/tape 一定 利 good 支撑, 但浙江石化 new plant/unit plan 1 month start production, Hengli plan 2 month 份试车 start production, 西布尔 new plant/unit already start production in, 且PE货源 will full 部销至 China market, add 1 month China 传统春节, market demand decrease low, for future new expand can 担忧, market difficult has relatively strong/high as gas 氛.

         comprehensive 而言, 1 month plastics market supply and demand low, but also year will 至, market flow property 偏紧, overall 氛围逐渐趋于平淡. 1 month in rear, market and will decrease/reduce, expected 1 month 份PE price will 以区间整理 is 主, future 继续关注 macro 面消息 and rear step/link 库存变化.