Shanghai Daoqin Plastics Co., Ltd.

        一, 2019 year PP futures market 综述

        2019 year PP futures price full year 呈现震荡 fall 走势. its in 3 month in to 4 month in 旬, 6 month to 7 month 初, 8 month to 9 month in has stage/phase property elastic, in price elastic rear still is lower 行探底. full year price 走势, according to PP主 force price 看, 3 month 4 day 8936元/吨创 year inner most high 点;截止 currently, 8 month 29 day year inner most low 点7787元/吨. year inner high low 点价差1149元, 振幅12.9%, according to most high price and most low price 计算, most large 振幅13.7%.

         upper semi year PP market 呈现震荡 lower trend. Q1 degree overall 处于平台震荡 in, 受春节 rear production enterprise high 库存叠 add market for new plant/unit in start production degree 担忧, supply pressure 预期突出, cost 端原油, 煤炭支撑良 good, in addition macro wide and increase value decline, market for demand versus for 乐观, formed stage/phase property 支撑, to 3 month 初开始一波 stage/phase property fall, stage/phase main/primary factors has: 2018 year 12 month 欧佩克原油 decrease drop 幅近两 year most large provide market 信心支撑, waste plastics prohibited Imported and recycled material environmental protection pressure is long good, 石化库存偏 low. Q2 degree, 4 month has elastic rear in trade 谈判出现恶化, 预期差导致矛盾集 in 释放, price accelerated fall. 进入5 month rear, 原油受库存反季节 property increase large lower 行, 而PP库存也 again 次出现暴库 phenomenon, 石化坚定 drop 价排库, meanwhile 久泰, Hengli new production capacity add market supply increase large pressure, multiple factors add, 5 month fall. 6 month stage/phase property small main/primary in 美领导人通话, macro 释放利 good, large elastic, add 之5 month plant/unit in rear 效应陆续体现, this stage/phase main/primary effect/influence factors has macro in trade 战先恶化 rear and, 美伊关系紧张, 石化库存 high high pressure relatively large, new production capacity market and lower demand 清淡, plant/unit high for PP price 支撑.

         lower semi year PP market 继续震荡 lower 行, in trade and 出现反复, 暂无实质 property good, PP price still basic 面而继续震荡 lower 行. Q3 degree, supply and demand wide basic 面情况, 石化库存维持 high 位, slow, 9 month in trade and, strong/high agent, PP futures 展开一波反 elastic, this stage/phase main/primary effect/influence factors has: lower construction start rate in lower slip lower 游维持 low 库存拿货谨慎, 石化库存 high 企, 9 month in 旬沙特两油田遇袭, 两桶油库存 decline and 十一节 front 备货; Q4 degree, 十一节 rear 石化累库 relatively large, pressure add 剧, “两桶油” through low price 库, pressure property has understanding, rear slow has 反复, lower construction start improves macro data low 迷经济 lower pressure relatively large, automotive industry add low 迷, PP futures price 一路震荡 lower 行.

        二, PP期/ in stock related

         futures is future in stock, in stock is futures 折现, 两者本 is product is different 交割期. in stock is futures 定价之锚, in stock price toward more is need futures price direction. 如图 示, PP futures and in stock large separation time 走势一致. more for long 期指数 data analysis, related can to 0.95 above. especially is year, trade day 渐没落, 代之而起 is trade, trade and trade and other new type trade methods. as is in stock and futures 之差, is supply and demand 变化之差 value 体现, industry and large machine 构客户商谈 solid 定 基差 is rise water, through in stock = futures + rise water made price.