Shanghai Daoqin Plastics Co., Ltd.

        明 year market difficult has upper performance

         capacity expansion high to add growth and in trade 不确定 property, polyolefin supply and demand landscape future will 发生变化, expected year market difficult has upper performance, low 迷甚至遭遇“寒流” in difficult 免. this is day front in 西安举行 2019第七届西北石油石化 high forum upper, inner expert to 出 判断.

         market

        持续 fall 整整一 year

        “ front degree inner polyolefin market 总体震荡 lower 行, 截至8 month lower type low density polyethylene (PE) (LLDPE), low density polyethylene (PE) (LDPE) price 跌至近10 year most low 点, other product types price 也跌至近5 year low 位, separation polyethylene (PE) (PE) product types 出厂价 already cost 线. from year 10 month 底至今 market fall year, this is in recent years polyolefin market fall cycle most long one-time. ” in 石油华东 chemical industry sales company 信息部副经理许彦说, currently PE, polypropylene (PP) (PP)主流 price separation is 7000~7500元/吨, 7800~8200元/吨, year-on-year fall 1500元/吨 left right.

        国 inner polyolefin market is 何如此 low 迷?许彦认 is 供求关系失衡 is main/primary factors. 2019 year upper semi year, polyolefin high 库存始终困扰 market. its is breaking parts relatively more, inner outer factors complex, dry market 波动. ratio 如4 month large drop 税, in trade scratch rise grade, rate value, large 幅波动 and other factors for polyolefin market generate relatively large effect/influence, market 信心严 heavy 受挫.

         review year inner polyolefin market 走势, degree 总体偏 low is 主, lower factory 库存处 in year high 位;4 month in rear 出现暴库 phenomenon, trade drop 价促销;而 in trade scratch rise grade 进一步 add heavy market 恐慌情绪, price procurement force is year low 点;6 month lower market 止跌企稳, separation product types price elastic;7~8 month supply and demand 两淡局面, tube/pipe plant/unit relatively more, lower demand relatively 淡, inner outer versus drop 价, separation product types again 创近10 year low 位;9 month demand and decline, market 止跌企稳;10 month price again degree 回落.

         supply

         full capacity expansion high 峰 袭

        “国 inner polyolefin capacity expansion high 峰期, 2020 year will is new plant/unit start production most in year, market lower pressure increase large, polyolefin product price or will cost amount, local decrease can can formed is large rate parts. ”许彦说.

        许彦进一步 analysis is, 2019 year still is full 球PE, PP expand can relatively is in year, production capacity will separation to 10208 10,000 tons, 5607 10,000 tons (均不含 China large 陆). 2020 year, expected full 球PE new increase production capacity 213 10,000 tons, increase 幅2.1%;PP new increase production capacity 约172 10,000 tons, increase 幅3.1%.

         from full 球 看, is most main/primary polyolefin Imported and demand 区域, China PE increase amount main/primary Imported pressure. 随 北美页岩 gas made PE fast speed development, plant/unit large expand can, year China PE Imported amount year-on-year growth 接近20%, to rate decline trend. and PE positive good versus is, year full 球PP expand can in in China, PP自 to rate improve/increase.

        “ if 说PE increase amount is inner outer 共进, that 么PP increase amount main/primary also is inner, 2020 year inner polyolefin supply increase amount will history value, supply pressure front. ”许彦说, expected 2020 year inner polyolefin supply amount 7573 10,000 tons, year-on-year increase 1128 10,000 tons, increase 幅17.6%, ratio 2019 year increase 7 百 separation 点. its in, PE3996 10,000 tons, year-on-year increase 525 10,000 tons, increase 幅15.1%;PP3577 10,000 tons, year-on-year increase 623 10,000 tons, increase 幅21.1%. inner polyolefin supply will 进入群雄逐鹿时代.

        据 understanding, 2020 year, 浙江石化, large 美镁业, 辽宁宝, Hengli 石化二期, long in can 化二期, 浙江卫星石化, Wanhua Chemical, 锦州石化 and other 10 more sleeve/set polyolefin plant/unit will 陆续建 formed 试车, 一批丙烷脱 hydrogen made propylene project will start production, year degree PP market pressure will increase large, expected to 2022 year inner PP will 剩近400 10,000 tons. PE按每 year Imported growth 5%计算, to 2022 year will 剩200 10,000 tons left right, market or will formed is full price 洼.

         demand

         lower construction start rate low

         in recent years, product structure rise grade and 人民生 active water day improve/increase, plastics pipeline and in container demand growth relatively fast. 但许彦认 is, tube/pipe lower plastics products types type dispersion, rigid property demand 旺盛, more product types production capacity is for 剩, demand structure has obvious 变化. versus for upper industry more 元化, polyolefin lower industry in degree 却不断 improve/increase, industry chain accelerated, 引发国 inner trade step/link competition add 剧, 情况不容乐观.

        据 introduction, year plastics products factory construction start rate low year, ratio 如10 month 份PE pipe/tube, PP fiber, PP塑编, cable and other processing enterprise construction start rate in 65% left right, low year 同期. especially is a large amount of in small enterprise is lower enterprise construction start rate decline main/primary factors. lower 游 库存 effect/influence, degree plastics products industry construction start rate low year.

        “随 in trade scratch rise grade, plastics enterprise outer speed degree obvious add fast, in small enterprise combined add 剧, 导致订 mono toward large in type factory in, export mono decrease/reduce. this 反 势必会造 formed trade step/link competition degree add 剧, market price easy difficult 涨, in small trade 商盈利愈发困 difficult. ”许彦说, 像浙江余姚, 山东临沂 and other small type plastics trade 商, year pressure very large, 生存空间越 越 small. to 2021 year or 2022 year, lower combined add fast, in small trade will market.