Shanghai Daoqin Plastics Co., Ltd.

        我国常规资源处于“ more 煤, less gas, 缺油” 局面, can 源资源拥 has amount relatively low, in recent years, 随 国民经济 fast speed development, already formed is 石油消费 large 国, 石油缺口逐 year increase large for can safety supply, 国民经济 平稳运行以 and sustainable development belt/tape new 挑战, raw materials supply 紧张, 催生 我国 different process made industry 兴起.

        随 raw materials more 元化持续推进, will different process profit 图进行 comparison:

        依托于廉价 煤炭资源, made cost versus relatively made low, in low 油价时代, made competition force to relatively strong/high impact. versus for 而言, alcohol made competition force low, alcohol price 波动幅 degree relatively large, therefore alcohol made still will long 期处于亏 loss 状态.

        原油路线 its cost and profit and price related, therefore price 变动情况至关 important, from product gross profit 情况 看, 随 原油 price 连续触底, made product 盈利情况 relatively good.

        丙烷 price 直接决定丙烷脱 hydrogen production cost, 丙烷波动 for cost effect/influence large, China 丙烷脱 hydrogen high pure degree basic Imported, therefore in 一定不确定 property, 定价话语权 difficult 以掌握 in enterprise 自己手 in, currently 盈利状态居首.

        我们 in from different plant/unit production polypropylene (PP) cost comparison 看:

        煤油 cost obvious, made project need more high 盈利空间 can to investment 收益;煤 made project can cost low, market low 也不会 decrease or 停产;

        原油 price 80-85美元/桶时, outer alcohol made and 石脑油 made cost versus 当, outer alcohol made by is product.

        丙烷脱 hydrogen process 以丙烷 is raw materials, propylene a small amount of hydrogen gas, and other process versus ratio, 丙烷脱 hydrogen advantages in raw materials and product mono 一, and propylene rate relatively high. 丙烷脱 hydrogen process therefore in China speed development, good can force is most main/primary causes; although 别时段也会出现亏 loss, 但盈利依然 is 主旋律. 不, has issues can 忽略, raw materials price 直接决定丙烷脱 hydrogen production cost, therefore effect/influence large, 丙烷需依赖 Imported, therefore 话语权 difficult 以掌握.

         in currently price system lower, cost low to high is: PDH, CTO, 石脑油裂 understanding, MTO. in China already industrial 化 烯烃 production in, 以专产 propylene PDH路线 cost most low, competition force most strong/high.

         from different different raw materials plant/unit property comparison

         again from different production process excellent disadvantages comparison and other amount 烯烃, mono pure from investment degree 看, CTO and 石脑油裂 understanding investment degree obvious high other type type plant/unit. CTO processing use high is is need 先 煤炭 made formed alcohol, this step/link consumption can consumption water. made cost formed in solid cost ratio to 60%, Raw Materials ratio in 25% left right, alcohol made cost formed in raw materials structure ratio in 80% left right, made project cost for raw materials price 变化不敏感, in high lower, 石脑油裂 understanding competition force, industry internal raw materials structure optimization (light 质化) and external more development.

         various raw materials price in obvious related property, very difficult that type of more tool advantages. enterprise according to conditions and for future raw materials supply and demand and price forecast combined selection investment direction.

        1.石脑油 made 烯烃: product deep degree utilizing is key/critical 传统 石脑油 made technology relatively is formed 熟, product comprehensive utilizing rate relatively high, by is is most combined production process 路线. most large features is product relatively is 丰富, 包括C2, C3, C4, C5, C9 and other product, can product mono belt/tape market 风险, product increase value force large, therefore product deep degree utilizing is improve/increase understanding plant/unit property key/critical.

        2.煤 made 烯烃: polyolefin price profit in low lower, made 烯烃一体化 plant/unit profit main/primary 自PE, PP plant/unit. 2015 year upper semi year PE, PP price high 位运行, is CTO enterprise belt/tape can profit. chemical industry cost versus for solid 定, polyolefin price effect/influence to CTO project property. another, CTO project investment large, 一 典 type 180 10,000 tons alcohol made 烯烃一体化 plant/unit investment 约200 100 million yuan, 财务费 use and 折旧占 to production cost 40%, investment rate relatively low.

        3. outer alcohol made 烯烃: project 基础配 sleeve/set very key/critical in low 油价背景 lower, MTO plant/unit can force already large sink marks, cost high 于CTO plant/unit. outer alcohol raw materials price rise, material and 仓储 挑战. is 180 10,000 tons outer alcohol made plant/unit, need alcohol raw materials 接近5000吨, for enterprise material 流, tube/pipe can force is relatively large 考验. in currently lower, outer alcohol made project 盈利预期偏 low.

        4.丙烷脱 hydrogen made propylene: still can degree development PDH以 investment low, technology formed 熟, rate high, product mono and other advantages to 关注, for has propylene demand, hydrogen gas can has utilizing enterprise is selection. and propylene is 决定PDH project key/critical factors, construction PDH project, need 依托良 good conditions, 同样面临 material and 仓储 挑战.