Shanghai Daoqin Plastics Co., Ltd.

        近期PVC market 以区间振荡 is 主. degree inner PVC plant/unit construction start rate improves separation ethylene method plant/unit start production capacity expansion, supply amount has 一定程 degree increase, demand 也由淡季逐步转 is 旺季, 房 产 tough property relatively strong/high, supply and demand overall 矛盾不 large.

         environmental protection 方面8 month 份华北 区部 separation lower enterprise 限产;库存方面华东, 华南社会库存 化 add fast, 但华东 year-on-year still obvious high year. in addition 9 month 份沙特黑天鹅事 parts, for PVC形 formed day 提振, rear speed toward lower 回归.

        检修恢复叠 add new increase start production supply still has pressure

         according to 隆众资讯 预估, 2019 year 1—9 month inner PVC output/production volume in 1425 10,000 tons, relatively year increase 12 10,000 tons left right, main/primary in new production capacity belt/tape output/production volume increase amount increase. year chemical industry industry safety relatively more, make PVC long 期停车 plant/unit increase 79 10,000 tons / year. 但考虑 to year already new increase production capacity 72 10,000 tons / year, and new 疆宜化30 10,000 tons / year plant/unit already 复产, therefore year has production capacity also is has growth. month degree supply data 看, degree supply pressure obvious high 于同期, 9 month rear PVC检修 enterprise decrease/reduce, upper construction start improves, 且四季 degree plan generally relatively less. degree 安徽华塑, poly chemical industry, new in and other plant/unit start production rate relatively large, production capacity 共计59 10,000 tons / year, supply will 面临一定 pressure. 2020 year start production plan relatively is large, 包括 280 10,000 tons / year production capacity, can start production semi, increase speed and year large versus 当.

        PVC start production 情况 库存 化 speed degree can

        尽 tube/pipe supply amount has increase, 但华东, market demand 逐步由淡季进入旺季, and PVC sheet/plate and other new demand maintain 旺盛, PVC supply and demand 矛盾不 large. 华东, 华南 区社会库存 化 has add fast. 华南社会库存 already relatively low 位置, 华东社会库存继续延续 high 位回落态势. lower slip 社会库存, make 华东 区基差坚挺, need lower 游囤货 procurement front separation property demand rear, supply rise rear 社会库存 decline is 否持续. tube/pipe 8—9 month 份华东 market 库存 化 add fast, 但并未改变 year-on-year relatively high 局面, 截至9 month lower 旬, and 华南总库存 year-on-year still high 31.6%.

        四季 degree 产基建 demand still has tough property

        冬季北方 产 project will make PVC季节 property demand decrease low. 东北, 华北 区 tube/pipe type enterprise in will reduce production negative will more 余货源发往华南 区. year tough property strong/high 于预期, product sales, completion still negative growth 区间, negative growth rate shrink small; but also new construction start in relatively high upper, increase speed lower slip speed degree significantly add fast;房屋施工面积 increase speed still high 位. its in 房屋施工面积 increase speed for electrical and other 施工初期 demand; sales increase speed is indicators, for outer rear demand;房屋 completion for 应装修 demand.

        近 day in in 央, 国务院印发 《交通 strong/high construction need 》, need 指出 我国基建 development direction, table/sheet 明我国基建 demand still has very large growth 空间. combined front add fast 方政府专项债券发行 use and drop and other 信息, can currently policy wide 松, cycle add 码, will for PVC基建 demand formed 支撑.

        结论: PVC or will 延续区间振荡

        综 upper, degree PVC supply 端检修 decrease/reduce, has new production capacity pressure, demand 端 产, tough property relatively strong/high for supply pressure formed for 冲. or 结束三季 degree fast speed 库而转 is versus for balanced 状态. 基差方面, currently futures price has water 反映 一定供 to 端 悲观预期以 and property factors. 总之, degree PVC market trends or still 以振荡 is 主.

        另需 attention/notes is, 9 month 28 day is China for outer PVC anti-dumping 调查期 to time, 届时若 anti-dumping policy can 延续, Korea, Japan and Taiwan 区PVC or will export China inner, 进而打破 currently inner PVC supply and demand versus for balanced landscape.