Shanghai Daoqin Plastics Co., Ltd.

         front 期原油 price large from cost 面推涨PTA market trends, price degree 运行至5360元(吨价, lower 同). 不, inner 人士认 is, rise 缺乏持续 property, supply 面充足叠 add demand 不振, rear 期PTA market or is low 势盘整 is 主, “金九” formed color already 然不足.

         market supply 充足

        近期, PTA供 to 端持续 wide 松, market 始终无 method has 效持续反 elastic, upper inner high low 价差达 to 300元.

         supply 方面, 福海创450 10,000 tons / year PTA plant/unit construction start rate in 8 formed left right;福建佳龙一 sleeve/set 60 10,000 tons / year PTA plant/unit 自8 month 2 day 检修;BP珠海110 10,000 tons / year PTA plant/unit positive 常;海南逸盛PTA plant/unit positive 常运行. overall 看, PTA industry construction start rate in 87.99%, market supply amount 充足.

        山东 in chemical industry group has company market 部经理李宏 table/sheet 示, rear 期PTA检修以 and heavy plant/unit 交织, supply 面总体偏 wide 松.

         specific 看, 蓬威石化90 10,000 tons / year PTA plant/unit 于9 month 19 day 停车, 四川晟达100 10,000 tons / year plant/unit 于9 month 18 day 停车. 而西南2 sleeve/set plant/unit plan 9 month lower heavy 启, expected PTA construction start rate or small improves, for market formed pressure.

         in addition, currently PTA社会库存 amount 约133.4 10,000 tons, relatively front increase 1.6 10,000 tons. in supply amount 充足情况 lower, expected rear or 继续累库, 进一步削 low PTA market rise can.

         cost 支撑走 soft

         from raw materials PX 看, tube/pipe its supply and demand 面变化不 large, in large belt/tape lower, PX market 连续两 day rise, 买盘情绪走 high. rear price large 幅回落, cost 支撑塌陷, heavy property, PX price 出现回调, to PTA market cost decrease low.

        据金联创 statistics, currently inner PX industry construction start rate in 87.12%, 暂无检修 plant/unit, overall high negative 荷状态. rear 期 看, 金陵石化PX plant/unit plan 10 month 份检修.

        国 outer 方面, currently 国际PX market remove long 期停车 plant/unit outer, more stability 运行, PX construction start rate overall relatively high. rear 期 看, Korea SK旗 lower 位于仁川 130 10,000 tons / year PX plant/unit plan 9 month 25 day 开始45天 检修.

         for/regarding rear 市, inner 人士认 is, although inner outer has plan plant/unit, 但海南炼化PX new plant/unit plan 10 month 1 day start production, 恒逸石化文莱PX plant/unit plan 10 month start production, market impact relatively large, therefore PX price 回调风险 increase, difficult in cost upper for PTA形 formed 支撑.

         demand 缺乏亮点

         for/regarding PTA lower 游, 山东省 chemical industry research 院副院 long 孟宪兴 table/sheet 示, currently lower polyester 产销偏 cold, long filament rate 35%, short 纤产销 rate 20%~30%, polyester sheet/slice rate 50%～90%. overall 看, lower field/area difficult belt/tape 动PTA demand large growth.

        据 understanding, currently polyester enterprise overall water large rise. ethylene glycol and other raw materials price 回落, polyester enterprise cost pressure decrease low, polyester product market 波动不 large, 盈利状况 good 转. currently polyester sheet/slice product profit in 355.9元, bottle sheet/slice product profit in 80.9元, long filament product profit in 680.9元, short product profit in 505.9元.

         from 库存 看, in 秋节归, cost function lower, long filament market 产销放 amount, factory fast speed decline, although rear market 产销清淡, 但涤纶 long filament industry 库存依旧维持 low 位. 而近期 lower factory in raw materials relatively is 充足, 且终端 market has obvious 恢复迹象. effect/influence, expected short 期涤纶 long filament factory amount or upper rise 通道.

         from construction start rate 看, front heavy plant/unit negative 荷继续 improves, Tongkun new plant/unit positive material 运行, long filament construction start rate micro upper rise, 而涤纶 short construction start rate 持稳.

         bottle grade PET方面, 广州泛亚 plant/unit positive 常, upper comprehensive construction start rate upper rise, day 厦门腾龙 plant/unit fault/failure 停车, rear 期万凯 plant/unit will 停车, bottle grade PET industry overall construction start rate will 回落.

         rear 市 看, 福建金轮 polyester plant/unit day plan 检修, expected short inner polyester comprehensive construction start rate or 稳步走 low, raw materials procurement will decrease/reduce.