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polypropylene (PP): “金九” milli 无悬念 “银十” has 待观望
9 month 份, polypropylene (PP) 借势发 force, 打开涨势, wire drawing is 例, currently price in 8700-9200元/吨, relatively month inner low 点涨近500元/吨. future 一周, price 走势几乎没 has 悬念, in in stock decrease/reduce and lower 游补库支撑 lower, expected PP粒 market high 位整理. 但十一 rear, PP粒 market has which 变化, can again front 缘.
近期 polypropylene (PP) plant/unit 动态一览
supply 面, 9 month 份检修 plant/unit month more 数恢复 positive 常, expected output/production volume in 10 month 份释放, add 之国庆 small long false 期间, production enterprise positive output/production volume 累计, 10 month supply pressure relatively large. demand 面, year 9 month overall lower demand good 转, month in lower procurement force degree add large, consumption raw materials 库存. expected rear lower still has separation demand, 10 month 份补库 force degree small 于9 month.
社会库存转移通道畅通, 9 month market in stock 资源不 more, trade 商采取现开现卖模式, add for 10 month market trends 并不乐观, more 数商家无库存积 pressure. 石化库存处于 year inner low 位, rear has 累积, 10 month 份石化以 库存 is 主. currently profit maintain can, for 定价不会 has obvious effect/influence.
因 is supply and demand pressure 逐步凸显, add macro good 不足, lower products 厂家订 mono pressure large, 10 month 份业者信心由乐观转 is 谨慎. meanwhile outer 盘方面, 9 month inner large effect/influence, 美金PP market 跟涨出货, 但临近 month demand 跟进乏 force 拖累, market high formed 交不畅, more low formed 交, currently 港口库存 low 位, expected 10 month 份美金PP market polypropylene (PP) overall trend effect/influence, 报盘偏 low 震荡.
综 upper, 10 month 份PP market supply and demand add large, price has 回调空间. 9 month upper, in 游库存 drop low 点, add lower 游国庆 front demand, market formed pressure large. 但10 month add 国庆期间 output/production volume, meanwhile lower factory in front 释放, rear demand has 限, raw materials lower difficult degree add large. meanwhile to new start production plant/unit production capacity 释放, for in stock and 业者心态 belt/tape effect/influence, expected 10 month market lower is 主, 建议逢 high 做空. wire drawing in 8400-9300元/吨, copolymer in 8500-9500元/吨.
