Shanghai Daoqin Plastics Co., Ltd.

         market demand shrink decrease

         according to IHS Markit published full polyurethane ester raw materials month degree market report, USA 二苯基甲烷二异氰 acid ester (MDI) production several month 一直都 in 寻求提价7~10美 separation /磅, however in 7 month 份涨价 几美 separation, its month 份并没 has achieve 提价. IHS Markit polyurethane ester raw materials business 美洲区执行董事 large 卫·波特 table/sheet 示: “8 month 份情况也没 has what different, large more polymerization grade MDI(pMDI) market price still 延续7 month water 平. mono grade MDI price rise can can property large.

         production 商议价 can force low

        IHS Markit table/sheet 示, supply and demand soft is 买方不接受涨价 main/primary causes. and front year versus ratio, year plan inner or plan outer 停产造 formed production capacity loss large decrease/reduce. trade data Imported amount in decline. Imported decrease/reduce has formed market supply 足够紧张, therefore method make obtain more has 利 议价 位. remove outer, in force ensure amount, 并愿意牺牲销 amount profit rate ensure market 份额, therefore has 足够理由抵 resistant 涨价. ”

         in addition, market demand more is shrink decrease, especially is 8 month positive value property demand stage/phase. IHS Markit table/sheet 示: temperature industry demand in 不断走 soft. spray coating foam material demand very strong/high. in temperature material 方面, due to and can property polystyrene (PS) (EPS) and other competition product price decline, has more more substitute/replace product market generate 威胁.

        IHS Markit指出, 6 month 至7 month, USA construction start rate decline 4%, 并连续第三 month decline. however, and meanwhile, construction start can increase 8%. IHS Markit expected, MDI production will in 9 month 份继续推动涨价, especially is if raw materials pure price 如预期 that supply 紧张而 rise. 10 month 份预期停工导致 supply 趋紧也 can can let has 充足理由提价.

        IHS Markit analysis 师波特 understanding 释, usually in 9 month and 10 month heavy market, for and full 球衰退 担忧 can can made 人们 购买 hot 情. remove non is outer parts formed supply 紧张, production can can achieve price rise target/goal.

         trade add price 波动

         year, full scope/range inner MDI定价一直处于波动 in. 2017 year more factory and production capacity 紧张, formed MDI price rise. 2018 year 底, product substitute/replace and supply improvement demand decrease low, 进而造 formed MDI price 崩溃. in MDI market must in trade factors. 2018 year 9 month, USA for China pMDI product 征收10% tariff, 2019 year 5 month, tariff rate upper 调至25%.

        IHS Markit company polyurethane ester raw materials analysis 师James Elliott table/sheet 示: “引入25% tariff will make pMDI market property 继续存 in, especially is USA market. ”

         USA history upper is pMDI export 国, its inner demand growth fast production capacity growth, 2018 year USA formed is pMDI Imported 国. year pMDI export 20 10,000 tons, Imported 30 10,000 tons, 净缺口达10 10,000 tons. 2018 year USA 约71% Imported pMDI China, Imported value low 于5 100 million USD.

        今 year USA pMDI demand still maintain 不变, Imported amount decrease/reduce semi, from 2018 year upper semi year Imported amount 17.1 10,000 tons decline to 2019 year upper semi year 8.1 10,000 tons. James Elliott指出, formed Imported amount decline main/primary causes is China Imported amount decline 近50%. in addition, due to Q1 degree market performance strong/high 劲, China export supply, more main/primary causes is USA add tariff.

         USA pMDI trade will heavy new balanced. James Elliott指出, USA Domestic supply can used for China supply decrease/reduce, construction, electrical appliances and composite/compounding industry main/primary use will 不必收紧消费, tube/pipe can can more high material cost.

         other polyurethane ester raw materials to in trade effect/influence. USA for 甲苯二异氰 acid ester (TDI) and ring oxygen 丙烷(PO) product 征收25% tariff, China for USA pMDI, mono grade MDI and TDI征收25% 报复 property tariff, for PO征收10% tariff.