Shanghai Daoqin Plastics Co., Ltd.

        8 month 23 day China for USA product add tariff, mono 包含PE, PP, and other chemical industry product, 24 day 凌晨特朗普发推回应, for China separation export product add tariff, effect/influence lower plastics type product export.

        总体 upper, 我们认 is, trade rise grade short upper for inner polypropylene (PP) function in. 首先, in trade 战 不断摩 scratch add 剧, for full 球经济 is types 拖累, and currently already 经开始显现, resistant use product demand already to made; its 次, 我们国 inner lower products export volume comparison large, and export to USA comparison more. is trade scratch already 经进行 一 year more, large separation effect/influence already 经消化, long or obvious pressure made has 限. polypropylene (PP) price more more 取决于 basic 面 变化.

         from products 看, lower plastics products export in inner lower formed product overall demand field/area in comparison large, export to USA plastics products to plastics products export amount 36% left right. increase tariff, in short upper for export has made. is, trade 战打打停停 already 经进行 has 1 year more time, however plastics products export in 2019 year 却出现 year-on-year increase, 1-6 month export amount year-on-year 涨幅逾10%; another 人民币汇 rate 破7, in 一定程 degree upper tariff rise belt/tape pressure.

        据 data statistics, 自2015-2019 year (1-6 month) Imported USA polypropylene (PP) product, separation to polypropylene (PP) Imported amount ratio/proportion separation is 1.87%, 1.67%, 3.02%, 1.13% and 0.59%. Imported polypropylene (PP) main/primary separation is Korea, 沙特阿拉伯 and new add 坡. 由此 看自 USA Imported polypropylene (PP) product in inner ratio/proportion small, and in inner production capacity in expand can lower, make Imported 原产于 USA polypropylene (PP), inner overall supply full can achieve to 自足.

        而 from inner polypropylene (PP) price 变动 看, large 家似乎 for macro reaction 略显迟钝, is basic 面 变化主导 market trends large 势. currently 看, in futures is in fall process in, is in stock still relatively is 坚挺, 基差进一步走 strong/high 至600附近. assessment in stock in 9 month front also is difficult 以出现 has fall.

         causes in 于9 month currently still more, new production capacity amount has 限, product supply current situation understanding obvious. understanding, 9 month new increase plant/unit 包含神华包头, can and other 厂家, add 之停车检修 plant/unit to 9 month 份 厂价, production capacity loss amount in 20 10,000 tons above, expected to 9 month in rear, 检修才会陆续结束;而 as is new increase production capacity 讲, positive plant/unit still stability, 浙石化 will 会推迟至2020 year start production, can 源二期则 in 9 month lower 旬进行 start production, new production capacity amount in.

         another from demand 看, demand also is in, basic stage/phase property is 主, production 厂家 库存近期也持续处于一 fall 状态, PP9 month front difficult 以累积. therefore, although long 期基于 new production capacity and in stock high value still 然看空PP, currently 位置继续追空PP01 property ratio in reduce. therefore, new mono still 然建议 and other 待.

        但 is 我们也 need several 点: is high profit make 近端处 in high value 状态, price toward lower large; another is, Imported polypropylene (PP) formed price drop 至980美元/吨附近, outer Imported already 经打开.