Shanghai Daoqin Plastics Co., Ltd.

        受 supply and demand effect/influence, PE market futures year 10 month 份就呈现震荡 lower 行, in stock price from year low 位9000元/吨跌至7300元/吨, and still has lower trend, 而随 “金九银十” 旺季 临, market can 否走出僵持发 force upper 探呢?

         from production capacity 看, 2019 year PE new increase production capacity 达168 10,000 tons, currently can and in combined already start production, 而宁夏宝丰 expected degree start production, if rear plant/unit can 够如期 start production, that 么2019 year PE production capacity expected to 2036 10,000 tons, year-on-year increase 8.99%, can production capacity growth relatively large.

         from upper plant/unit construction start 看, made 烯烃 挤 pressure, upper 游PE enterprise high profit by 打破, drop 价促销 formed is upper 游 化 main/primary as, therefore year PE price 持续回落, 而经 近一 year fall, PE production enterprise profit already by large pressure shrink, data 显示, currently made LLDPE profit in 1200元/吨, made LLDPE profit in 1400元/吨, relatively low water 平. due to profit large lower slip effect/influence, 7-8 month PE production enterprise construction start rate decline obvious, currently construction start negative in 80% low water 平. 但8 month rear, PE检修 plant/unit will in 复产, plan 检修 仅 has 延安延 long 42 10,000 tons low pressure and large 庆石化 8 10,000 tons property plant/unit, can rear market supply pressure significantly.

         from lower demand 看, 受经济 increase speed effect/influence, year packaging film increase speed obvious lower slip, make PE plastics demand 出现萎 shrink. versus 应, lower film demand 也不太理想, although currently 处于农 film 消费旺季, film material price 并未受此提振, small lower 探, 石化厂部 separation lower 调70-100元/吨不 and other. from film construction start 情况 看, year film 旺季启动 need 早于往 year, currently film construction start rate already 达40% left right, lower film enterprise reaction mono 不足, production more is stage/phase property production, and year enterprise construction start 早于往 year, demand can can already front 透支, therefore rear film or 存旺季不旺预期, therefore for/regarding PE price obvious low year.

         from 库存方面 看, currently 石化库存略 high, upper 游 库 pressure relatively large. rear inner 蒙古久泰, in combined, 宝丰二期以 and 浙石化 new plant/unit start production, supply pressure increase large. demand 面, is market for 经济, trade ring and year increase 产情况 担忧, more rigid property demand 补库, a large amount of 囤货操 as can can, can 见石化库存积累 add 剧.

        综 upper in production capacity in 释放, demand already growth force trend lower, PE market will 逐步进入 supply and demand heavy 失衡 局面, PE price large rate still will 进一步 lower slip, low landscape difficult 以改变.