Shanghai Daoqin Plastics Co., Ltd.

        近期 in trade scratch again 起波澜, 国际油价应声暴跌, 但PP主 force combined 约并未 degree reaction, cost and basic versus for stability for price formed relatively large 支撑;但 rear 续伴随 new plant/unit in start production, and profit, 价差估 value high and other issues effect/influence, PP in long market pressure has increase large 预期.

        7 month polypropylene (PP) overall performance is high 回落. 受PP in stock wire drawing 货源偏紧 and demand good 转预期 effect/influence, force combined 约PP1909 in 7 month strong/high upper in 资金面 推动 lower degree 涨停, LL 跟涨. in elastic process in in stock 端跟涨无 force, especially high 价抵触 relatively is heavy, 故而PP09转 is 基差修复. 因09 combined overall value in high 位, rear 出现震荡回落. for/regarding PP 讲, in long rear 市 运行 pressure still in. its causes, main/primary nano is below/following 几点.

        自2019 year 5 month lower 旬开始, copolymer and wire drawing 价差持续 decrease/reduce, generally lower, 两者价差 positive water in 400-500 元/吨, 但截至 currently copolymer price already 经倒挂 wire drawing price. due to copolymer and homopolymer between production can and copolymer production cost high homopolymer 约1000元/吨, therefore combined 理 价差必定回归. currently 看, shrink small copolymer low non wire drawing strong/high 势(main/primary causes in copolymer demand 端 走 low, modified and non resistant use product 消费订 mono dispersion). therefore, 价差回归极 has can can wire drawing low methods achieve, currently wire drawing construction start ratio/proportion already improve/increase (currently wire drawing production ratio/proportion in 38.22%, relatively 6 month in lower improves 近11%, relatively 7 month improves 近8%); in addition, wire drawing has rise trend, 库存 变动必 will for 石化 定价 generate relatively is effect/influence.

         polypropylene (PP) in stock price 于 6 month in 旬开启 this elastic its can understanding is 预期差. upper semi year market for/regarding production capacity increase more 渡担忧 relatively is 普遍, 但实际 new production capacity new production capacity market 持续延 rear, for 09 combined effect/influence is has 限, outer production capacity in upper semi year 也并无 new production capacity 释出(basic 推迟至 Q4 degree);但 for/regarding demand 讲, 则延续 之 front supply and demand balanced 专题, good factors 释放(in trade scratch stage/phase property and, demand good 于预期以 and plant/unit plan inner and plan outer in and other), add 基差修复促 make PP formed 一轮 近1000 点 反 elastic. 但随 8 month in 检修期 结束以 and inner outer new production capacity 释放, 01 combined upper supply increase amount can is 现实(remove non a large amount of plant/unit 延迟), 而PP heavy 回累库态势(自7 month in heavy 回81 10,000 tons rear, 近期持续 in 72 10,000 tons -76 10,000 tons, relatively year high 进6.5%), 库存无 method has decline future effect/influence upper 游厂家 定价. in new production capacity 释放 背景 lower, PP decline already 经渐行渐远.

         polypropylene (PP) in stock water 平, is from production profit also is product types 间价差 看(wire drawing - copolymer), its value in high 位. currently 看, made polypropylene (PP) profit water in 1500元/吨 left right, made polypropylene (PP) profit in 1140元/吨附近, MTO gross profit water more is in 2000元/吨 left right. usually 说, profit 盈亏 边界点 is market trends 止跌 标志, 同样, ultra-high profit in dark lower 调风险.

         new plant/unit start production in, supply toward wide 松 渡

        2019 year 7 month polypropylene (PP) plant/unit loss amount in 25.38 10,000 tons, more is plan plant/unit, less plant/unit is 临时停车检修. 8 month plan inner plant/unit decrease/reduce, 仅仅神华 new 疆, can plan 停车检修. in addition, according to year 惯例, 石化厂家 in Q4 degree 进行检修 amount can especially in, again add new production capacity 释放 数 amount (巨 positive and in combined in 8 month can amount 产;宁夏宝丰二期 project and 浙江石化 and other will in degree achieve production), supply toward wide 松 渡 will formed is 现实.