currently new type 肺炎确诊病例 still in upper rise in, 1 month 31 day 凌晨2点30 separation, world 卫生组织宣布, will new type 冠状病毒疫情列 is 国际关注 breaking 公共卫生事 parts.
但 world 卫生组织 meanwhile strong/high 调, has necessary 采取限 made 国际旅行 and trade measures, 世卫组织不 recommendation made and trade measures.
疫情 for China generate types impact? 一方面, lower 服务业首当 its 冲 受 to relatively large effect/influence, especially is electrical 影院线, 旅游业, 住宿餐饮, lower and other and other. 另一方面, 本次疫情 爆发时点特殊, for industrial production active generate significantly impact.
is 此, for clothing/apparel, iron, machine 械, and other industry 进行 调研, and 广东, 湖北, 浙江, Shanghai, and other. different industry, different 区 情况 more has different, is upper, industrial production in use 工, mono, 库存, production, and other 方面都受 to different degree effect/influence. and 服务业 main/primary to demand impact has different, industrial production active meanwhile to to, demand 两 方面 impact, more is 窘迫. impact lower, industrial production active supply and demand performance separation 突出.
industrial production 恢复面临 short difficult 此次疫情 rise grade in front, this make 员工返工 formed is 一 突出 issues. comprehensive 看, currently industrial production active 动 恢复普遍面临 below/following short difficult: its 一, due to time made, 员工实际返工情况, in anti standards and material conditions and other issues, industrial production active can can by 动推迟. is has anti 控疫情 expand dispersion, 各省市 separation published enterprise time notice. 各 复工 requirements, large upper 不 早于2 month 9 day 24时之 front, its in 湖北省 requirements type enterprise time 不 早于2 month 13 day 24时. therefore, main/primary industrial active less relatively 原 春节 false 期推迟9 day. although 各 都 to 出 “不早于” 安排, is certain 区 实际 construction start still 然取决于疫情 anti 控进展, in 一定 不确定 property. due to currently also in expand dispersion, anti process in, 员工实际返工意愿不 strong/high. from 29 day 初五, 30 day full iron 路发送旅客 看, amount separation year-on-year decrease/reduce 74.7%, 73.8%. outer 工人 返工 also will has 推迟, again add upper necessary 2周隔离 time. in addition 工人 实际返工 time can can need 推迟2-3周, 一 区推 rear time can can more long. another, make outer 员工返回岗位, how to for outer 员工进行隔离安排? can is 复产员工 provide 充足 口罩 and other anti material 资? enterprise in 复产初期 need which anti standards and parts process/workflow? this is enterprise need 面临 现实 issues. especially is large type use type enterprise, upper issues more is 突出. its 二, currently 交通运输, material 流渠道面临 retardant 滞. is control 疫情, has necessary in high speed 公路进行通道 tube/pipe and temperature testing as, 不 也 has 一 方封闭, retardant 断道路, has 挖断公路 做 method. certain 县政府 also lower 令封闭国, 省, 县, 乡道路 县际进 export. 另一方面, 受运输 company long false effect/influence （何时复工也 more 未定）, material force to effect/influence. according to Mysteel statistics, 截至1 month 30 day, certain 省22家 construction enterprise combined 计库存137.5 10,000 tons, relatively 2019 year rear 第一周库存 amount increase 37.9 10,000 tons. its main/primary causes is material retardant, formed material method positive 常运输, fast speed 累积, separation in Raw Materials currently pressure in 港口待卸.
its 三, year rear manufacturing mono will 出现延迟, production enterprise loss 失. 春节 rear 2 month, clothing/apparel and other property product will 迎 赶工, high 峰. is due to front factors, production process 迟滞, time currently difficult 以确定, relatively more mono will 面临延误. as is rear 果, production enterprise will 面临扣款, or by 迫采取 add 急, and other methods fast 交付订 mono, this 同样会 generate more high cost. especially is export industry mono 交付延误, can can more large loss 失. meanwhile, front manufacturing enterprise 恰恰积累 relatively high in mono, this will make enterprise more large pressure. 2019 year 11 month 至2020 year 1 month, PMI new mono, new export mono di di high. due to PMI time made, therefore 1 month PMI data basic 反映 疫情 rise grade front 情况. in 2020 year 1 month, PMI new mono 指数达 to 51.4, 创20 month new high. meanwhile, new export mono in 1 month 虽回落至48.7, obvious high 于2019 year 初同期 value, and 2019 year full year water 平. meanwhile, from 12 month, 1 month 累计 看, new export mono performance relatively is strong/high 劲. 而恰恰 is this in mono, can can for generate relatively large pressure, belt/tape loss 失. new mono in year 末, year strong/high （ data 源: statistics 局, 2020 year 1 month 31 day ）疫情 for industrial production effect/influence can can ultra- 出1季 degree 疫情 for production active impact is one-time property, property. is this “暂时” has more long? 笔者认 is its effect/influence can can ultra- 出1季 degree, this type of can can property need attention/notes. from 1季 degree 本身 看, for active main/primary effect/influence, in 服务业方面 will is demand impact. for manufacturing effect/influence not only 仅体现 is demand impact, also will is to impact. that 么, is what 疫情 经济 effect/influence can can ultra- 出1季 degree? its 一, export manufacturing new mono 暂时流失, can can make effect/influence to 2季 degree. from 2005 year 1 month data 看, year rear 3, 4 month, is year inner export mono lower mono high 峰期, 两者甚至 obvious high 于第3 high 峰 9 month 份圣诞节订 mono. 3, 4 month in, also 以3 month mono 指数 均 value most high. can 见, 3, 4 month export mono performance, will rear several month export performance. 每 year 3, 4 month is new export mono lower mono high 峰: PMI new export mono （ data 说明: 基于2005 year 1 month 至2020 year 1 month data data 源: statistics 局, 2020 year 1 month 31 day ） currently, outer procurement for/regarding China high degree 关注. due to front causes, year mono time currently method 确认, will has ratio/proportion 发生延误. if in 3 month industrial production capacity still in 不确定 property, can can for month new mono generate 一定程 degree effect/influence, effect/influence to rear 续2季 degree production active 动. for/regarding mono 流失 担忧, different enterprise, different industry 情况各异. for/regarding competition force relatively strong/high enterprise, this 方面担忧不 obvious. is for/regarding clothing/apparel type enterprise, outer procurement can can meanwhile in more lower mono, if China production 恢复迟滞, can can effect/influence to outer procurement 商 订 mono direction. another, although world 卫生组织不 recommendation made and trade measures, is 一 国家 already separation 别采取 限 made measures, improves and other grade. this can can for China new increase mono generate effect/influence. 例如, outer supply need new increase China certain enterprise is supply 商, in need 经 初步洽谈, product testing, 验厂, 打样, 谈判, contract signing and other step/link. upper more step/link and outer procurement to 华 国际旅行. currently, this category of new increase China enterprise is supply 商 协商 process, can can to dry 扰, 甚至面临暂停, effect/influence to in export mono growth. its 二, industrial enterprise solid 定支出不变, production difficult increase, 资金链承 pressure upper add 霜. 首先, 推迟复工, outer by 隔离期间, enterprise still 然面临 solid use 支出, 如租金, loan and other. its 次, 延期复工期间 enterprise is need 支付工资? standards 不一, its in separation enterprise still need 支付工资. Shanghai in 1 month 27 day published 《 about/regarding 本市延迟 Shanghai enterprise and 学校开学 notice 》, 明确指出, “ for/regarding 休息 职工, enterprise 应按劳动 combined 同约定 standards 支付工资”. its 三, for/regarding new type 肺炎患者, 疑似病人, 密切接触者因 by 采取隔离治疗, 隔离观察 and other measures 导致不 can provide positive 常劳动, enterprise 也应当“视同 provide positive 常劳动并支付职工 positive as time 工资”. meanwhile 我们也 attention/notes to, industrial enterprise 资金链 strip/profile already 经普遍处于紧绷状态. according to statistics most new data: 2019 year 11 month, industrial enterprise 应收票据 and 应收账款金额达 to 5.025万 100 million yuan, year-on-year increase speed 32.3%, this is 2007 year most high year-on-year increase speed. 同期, industrial enterprise 应收账款平均 recycling to 44.6天, relatively 2019 year value has understanding, still 处于历 history high 位. can 见, industrial enterprise 资金链原本就处于紧张状态. again add upper solid 定支出不变, belt/tape outer 人工开支, 复工推迟, mono 交付延误, and anti 控期复产 anti cost improve/increase, this difficult will for 原本处于困境 enterprise generate relatively large effect/influence. if this enterprise 资金链发生 fracture, can can belt/tape enterprise 破产, increase, from can can effect/influence to rear 续经济走势. for upper 述情况 need 引起关注, 并进行充 separation assessment. 私营 industrial enterprise 资金链 strip/profile already relatively is 紧张
data 源: statistics 局, WIND data 终端, 2020 year 1 month 31 day 做 good anti and production 衔接工 as 毋庸置疑, anti still is currently most important as, in ensure anti 控疫情 front lower, for production 恢复提 front 做出安排 and 部署, decrease/reduce in impact, good anti and production 衔接工 as. is 此, to 出 建议 is: 首先稳资金流, 尽早恢复 material 流, rear 视疫情 improvement 情况恢复人流, meanwhile production active 动. 应 through has for property tax decrease 免, property short melt 资, is impact relatively large industry difficult enterprise provide 周转资金. especially is for/regarding 因疫情 impact 而陷入困境 民营 enterprise, need its 稳住资金链 strip/profile, 渡 暂时 difficult 关. currently, market 供求矛盾突出, and short meanwhile 并存. in 此背景 lower, policy 不宜做总 amount 刺激, 应以“ hydrophobic 通”供求关系 is 主. 而打通供求 key/critical ring, is material 流畅通. therefore, made 定明确 standards, 保障交通基础设施畅通. meanwhile, high degree heavy material 流运输 industry key/critical function, in anti 控疫情 standards lower, material 流运输业应尽早复工, positive 常运转. another, in 疫情完 full to control, material bottle full 打通之 front, large 规模实施总 amount 刺激. again 次, 恢复人流 and production active 动. 政府应 add strong/high and enterprise 沟通, versus understanding, stability enterprise 复工预期. especially is more understanding enterprise difficult, for 各 情况, according to different industry features 采取应 for measures. due to development in development, has also method specific time, can to 出一定 technology standards, according to new increase 病例数, flow amount, enterprise anti 疫情况 and other, to 出明确, can amount 化 复工 conditions, to enterprise production provide 参考预期. in 疫情尚未完 full understanding remove lower, 方政府 also 应明确复产 rear anti measures. in 疫情未完 full understanding remove lower, 政府应指导 enterprise for 员工进行 necessary anti 护, is enterprise provide anti use product market to.
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