Shanghai Daoqin Plastics Co., Ltd.

         ethylene is world upper output/production volume most large chemical product 之一, ethylene industrial is chemical industry industry core, ethylene product 占石化 product 75% above, in 国民经济 in has important 位, world upper already will ethylene output/production volume as is amount 一 国家石油化 industrial development water important 标志之一. 2018 year, world ethylene industry high growth, high and high 盈利 一 year. 2019 year, ethylene and product trade landscape large adjustment, trade 不确定 property increase, ethylene industry still high speed development 态势, production capacity growth will again innovation high.

         ethylene is industrial raw materials, production 路线众 more, main/primary 商业化路线包括石脑油裂 understanding, alcohol made 烯烃, catalytic understanding, catalytic 裂化/裂 understanding, 烯烃转化, alcohol water and other. ethylene lower main/primary material polyethylene (PE), polyvinyl chloride (PVC), ring oxygen 乙烷/ ethylene glycol, chlorine 乙烷, styrene, alcohol, acid ethylene and other multiple chemical industry product. year, world ethylene production capacity 迎 爆发式 growth, new increase production capacity 770 10,000 tons / year, its in semi USA. 2018 year, full ethylene production capacity to 1.78 100 million 吨/ year, amount is 1.61 100 million 吨, full ethylene plant/unit construction start rate is 90.1%. inner will 2018 year is world ethylene industry new increase production capacity high 峰, increase speed high and high 峰 “三 high ” year.

        2019 year, world ethylene new increase production capacity will breakthrough 千 10,000 tons, full ethylene production capacity can 达1.85 100 million 吨/ year, amount 达1.67 100 million 吨, full ethylene plant/unit construction start rate is 90.4%. large separation production capacity increase amount China and other 亚洲国家, main/primary due to 2015 year world large lower 行, 石脑油裂 understanding plant/unit large rise, China and other and large type project construction hot 情, belt/tape 2019 year project in 落. from long project 规划 看, USA ethylene production capacity will in 2020 year rear also start production high 峰.

         USA ethylene production capacity pressure impact world market

         USA ethylene mono year pressure add large, due to export 设施尚不完善, 2018 year USA Mexico ethylene mono price degree 跌至300美元/吨, expected year USA ethylene mono 体 剩规模 will expand large 至230 10,000 tons, more year ethylene export 终端也 will construction, expected in USA Mexico 湾 区建造 100 10,000 tons / year ethylene export will front 至2019 year degree start production, will large understanding 该 区 ethylene pressure, large improve/increase USA ethylene full trade rate.

        即 make trade scratch and ethylene mono trade, USA ethylene mono will 进一步 add large for 东北亚 区 export force degree. 东北亚 区 ethylene mono market will 打破传统 “几家独 large ”局面, for 东北亚 this versus for ethylene trade market generate relatively large impact. to currently 东北亚 and USA Mexico ethylene mono 体价差, 即便征收25% tariff (150～200美元/吨), USA production enterprise has machine through ethylene mono obtain ratio 2018 year more high 收益. 东北亚 ethylene market non full market, 买方也 will 承担部 separation tariff cost.

         although has Southeast Asia and 南美 区 separation 流, expected 2019 year USA for 东北亚 区直接 or ethylene material export will increase 200 10,000 tons. effect/influence, in ethylene material will increase for Africa, degree and 西欧 区 export, for 东北亚 区 export increase speed will decline 至不足5%;西欧 sleeve/set trade will 逐渐退出东北亚 区, Japan and China Taiwan plant/unit cost advantages, 届时净 export will negative growth, understanding plant/unit construction start rate will to impact. Korea ethylene mono trade and polyester film and other product export, for China ethylene material export positive growth.

        若考虑 trade scratch, USA export China ethylene material or will decline, China still will 承接 自 Southeast Asia, in and other trade, new increase 总规模 expected decline 100 10,000 tons left right, is day and Europe export China market has filament 空间. this for Europe market still 不容乐观. 随 北美 polyethylene (PE) production capacity 逐渐释放, 2019 year Europe already saturated and market will 面临承接 more more polyethylene (PE) 命运.

         trade 不确定 property will has Southeast Asia and in export

        随 USA ethylene industry expand can high to, expected 2019 year USA ethylene amount export will large increase, from supply and demand balanced degree 看, USA year need export ethylene mono in inner 近1000 10,000 tons ethylene material, 该规模 relatively 2010 year year export 规模几乎翻番.

         益于 trade and other factors, USA ethylene material 约15% will export 至南美 market, 5% export Africa, 30%～40%由 Southeast Asia market 消化. Southeast Asia market will large 缓冲2018～2019 year trade scratch lower USA export increase for 东北亚 market formed effect/influence. 但经 此轮 trade growth, Southeast Asia in inner market already method 进一步吸 nano more more Imported amount, 届时东北亚 market will USA rear trade growth belt/tape impact.

        因 trade scratch 不确定 property reinforcement, expected will large effect/influence USA ethylene material for 亚洲 区 export, USA enterprise can tariff belt/tape cost rise, its and in product in 亚洲 区 competition will obvious 变化, in addition, due to 亚洲 区 lower product basic 处于买方 market, large separation cost will USA production export enterprise 承担.

         due to USA enterprise trade cost upper rise, in 东 区 product in 东北亚 competition will has improve/increase. can 预见, in trade scratch and front, expected will has more more USA export to Southeast Asia, in and other market, China from upper market Imported 规模也 will increase.

        随 油价回 rise, supply large increase, demand difficult made year high growth, add upper products and other field/area difficult 以维系 high raw materials cost 运行, ethylene industry chain overall will relatively upper year 回落. expected year 东北亚 and 西欧 区石脑油裂 understanding cost will 随油价 significantly rise, its overall decline will world ethylene industry gas cycle 走势; in addition, 北美乙烷因近 year understanding demand large growth, gas supply growth 放缓, price 出现近 year most large rise. effect/influence, 北美乙烷裂 understanding project 赢利也 will in year 出现回落, 但并不妨碍 its and in 东 区 still is world ethylene industry 赢利情况 most good 区. overall 看, although year full ethylene industry gas degree already 出现回落, overall relatively good water 平.

         technology breakthrough promote ethylene industry relatively fast development

         world ethylene raw materials more add light and more 元化. especially is 东北亚 tool plant/unit active property ethylene production will more more 以LPG(liquid 化石油 gas) is raw materials, and will Imported more more USA as is raw materials, 乙烷基 ethylene full ethylene production capacity ratio/proportion will improves, expected to 2020 year USA 乙烷裂 understanding made ethylene ratio will ultra- 80%.

        原油直接 made chemical product will to world ethylene industry belt/tape heavy large effect/influence. due to use material demand will decrease/reduce, chemical industry product demand has 望持续 growth, 炼油商寻求 improve/increase chemical industry product rate, chemical industry product output/production volume. 沙特阿美 and SABIC company construction 原油直接 production chemical product large type combined project, China 一 民营资本 plan or in in more chemical industry product project and Imported made ethylene project. this project 势必导致 ethylene output/production volume large growth, full chemical industry product supply will large increase, market supply landscape will heavy large 变化.

        甲烷 made ethylene breakthrough. large 石油石化 company and research machine positive 继续开展以甲烷 made ethylene research, Chevron, ExxonMobil, housing/shell 牌, BASF, SABIC company, USA large 学, China 科学院 large material and other. various table/sheet 明, 甲烷直接 made ethylene technology positive in industrial breakthrough, day to full 球关注.

         China chemical industry market and increase more

        尽 tube/pipe increase speed 放缓, chemical industry product market demand year growth rate has decline, China still is world relatively large chemical industry product 消费国 and production 国, is chemical industry product demand increase amount relatively large 国家. China chemical industry market especially is ethylene industry chain supply 缺口吸引 国 inner outer investment attention/notes. not only enterprise, 方国企 will and inner ethylene lower product market competition, but also 随 石化 project outer 资准入 requirements wide, combined ratio/proportion made 取消, outer 资本也 will 进入, BASF, ExxonMobil and other 石化巨头 already will in China construction ethylene project.

         China product market will 逐步形 formed chemical industry, 民营石化 enterprise, 方石化 enterprise, outer 商独资 enterprise and China 石油, China 石化, China 海油, in group and other more 主体互动 market landscape, competition more add 激烈.

        2019 year, 浙江石化 and other 民营资本 using/adopting relatively production process and control technology, according to relatively energy saving emission reduction standards design and construction new project start production, will for China related technology development and application generate large 示范效应, will belt/tape China industry overall technology water improves. meanwhile, outer 资进入 not only is China belt/tape ExxonMobil 原油直接裂 understanding made technology, BASF high chemical product production technology and other 先进石化 technology and high add value chemical industry product, but also new investment 运营模式, new product standards and 先进 智 can manufacturing 理念, will for China enterprise to large and function.

        2019 year is China environmental protection policy 密集落 期, tube/pipe add 严苛, chemical industry industry environmental protection pressure 进一步 increase. short 期 看, enterprise environmental protection cost improve/increase pressure, will accelerated rear in small production capacity 退出. long 期 看, will add fast chemical industry toward high 端化, 集群化, 基 化, green development 步伐, toward high quality development 迈进.

         in industrial full 球化, product more 样化

         in chemical industrial positive in deep 刻变化. 随 乙烷 supply amount decrease/reduce, 海湾 区转 toward liquid or mixed combined raw materials use, ensure raw materials long-term supply and product more 样化. statistics data 显示, 2000 year 至2015 year, 海湾 区 chemical product production capacity full 球份额由3% improve/increase to 7%, in recent years has 放缓. future 海湾 区 chemical product production capacity will maintain growth, 卡塔尔, 阿曼, 阿布扎 ratio, 科威特 and 伊拉克 also will construction more liquid raw materials understanding plant/unit. in addition, 海湾 区 一 国家石油 company also will in market or raw materials outer lower project investment. product 差异化, high is in industrial development direction, expected high add value product production capacity will from 2017 year 500 10,000 tons / year increase 至2022 year 640 10,000 tons / year, increase speed is 5.1%.

        沙特阿美 plan, to 2030 year in full chemical product production capacity will from 1200 10,000 tons / year increase 至3400 10,000 tons / year, formed is upstream and downstream 一体化 comprehensive production 商. company plan in 2019 year start production in 建吉赞炼油厂 new increase a large amount of for 二甲苯 production capacity. 沙特阿美 also in 沙特以 outer investment construction a large amount of production capacity, ratio plan in Malaysia 国家石油 炼化一体化 project upper investment 70 100 million USD; in Korea Ulsan 一家石化 enterprise investment 近50 100 million USD; and 阿布扎 ratio 国家石油签署 一项 frame agreement; and degree company in degree nano investment construction 一 价 value 440 100 million USD 炼化一体化 project; contract signing China 浙江石化炼化一体化 project. 沙特阿美 子 company Motiva Enterprises positive in assessment in USA Mexico 湾沿岸 区进行 ethylene and investment can property, 标志 沙特阿美 will USA product market.

        沙特阿美 in 无限期搁置 upper plan rear, 购买 沙特 chemical industry SABIC company 70%股权. SABIC company is Dow DuPont rear full 球第二 large value chemical industry company, in recent years product structure adjustment optimization, business and Europe, 南, 北美洲 and 亚洲. 沙特阿美此举 will 进一步推动沙特化 industrial full and product more 样化, make 沙特化 industrial to more large development, has 利于资源 comprehensive optimization.

        “一 belt/tape 一路”沿线国家推进 ethylene project construction

        “一 belt/tape 一路”沿线国家继续推进 ethylene project construction. Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand and degree 尼西亚 and other “一 belt/tape 一路”沿线国家 positive in increase ethylene plant/unit, in 东 区 一批 ethylene project positive in or construction in. in light raw materials day short 缺 情况 lower, in ethylene new increase production capacity in in using/adopting mixed combined raw materials ethylene plant/unit, use 原油直接 production chemical product.

        沙特阿美 and SABIC company in 沙特延布 construction 原油直接 made chemical product combined project 包括两 strip/profile ethylene production 线, production capacity is 300万桶/ year, expected 2025 year start production;阿布扎 ratio 国家石油 and Borealis combined Borouge company in 鲁韦斯 construction sleeve/set combined production plant/unit, has 200 10,000 tons / year ethylene production capacity and 100 10,000 tons / year propylene production capacity, expected 2024～2025 year start production;阿塞拜疆国家石油 plan in 巴库附近 construction base/seat world grade comprehensive project, ethylene production capacity is 200 10,000 tons / year;卡塔尔 plan construction ethylene production capacity is 160 10,000 tons / year 乙烷裂 understanding plant/unit, expected 2025 year formed. in addition, Indonesia, degree, 俄罗斯, 伊朗, and other “一 belt/tape 一路”沿线国家也宣布 明确 ethylene plant/unit 规划.

        西欧 and other ethylene increase plant/unit material active property. 3 year, Europe ethylene production 商一直受益于 relatively high profit, 随 以 USA is world new increase production capacity start production, new increase ethylene production capacity to Europe ethylene production formed pressure, Europe ethylene production 商继续 expand large from USA Imported as is raw materials. INEOS in Europe investment 27 100 million newly built large type project, its in 包括一 乙烷裂 understanding plant/unit. INEOS already expand large 位于苏格兰 格兰杰莫斯 factory ethylene production capacity, newly built 一 乙烷裂 understanding 炉.

         SABIC company 自2018 year 1 month from USA Imported used for its 英格兰Wilton ethylene factory; expected Borealis company will from USA 东海岸 Imported used for its ethylene factory; liquid 化石油 gas (LPG) and 石脑油 价差 already Europe 沿海 区 一 ethylene plant/unit processing relatively high ratio/proportion 丙烷/丁烷; Dow chemical and INEOS already plan in Germany ethylene factory increase LPG use amount.