Shanghai Daoqin Plastics Co., Ltd.

         according to currently 公布 检修 plan, 8 month 份PE检修涉 and production capacity 175 10,000 tons, 接近总 production capacity 1/10,检修 force degree relatively large, its in 独山子石化10 10,000 tons full density plant/unit 6 month 29 day 起检修2 month, 10 10,000 tons 老HDPE plant/unit 7 month 17 day 起检修2 month, 独山子石化 its 余90 10,000 tons year production capacity PE plant/unit plan month 底开始 large 修2 month;神华榆林30 10,000 tons LDPE plant/unit 7 month 20 day large 修20天 left right and other, expected 8 month 份PE检修 loss high 达10.6 10,000 tons, versus ratio 7 month increase 一倍.

        同样, PP也 will 进入检修旺季, 8 month expected production capacity ultra- 300 10,000 tons, its in 包括100 10,000 tons production capacity is long 期停车造 formed, again add upper can and new 疆停车 time has 推迟, 8 month upper 旬实际 new increase production capacity has semi, its in 独山子石化老 plant/unit and 二线7 month in 旬开始 plan inner 检修, new plant/unit 一线, 二线均于7 month 22 day 停车检修, expected 维持60天;湛江东兴14 10,000 tons plant/unit 7 month 初停车检修2 month and other, to other plant/unit outer can can, loss has expand large.

         another, 检修不但 make overall supply decrease/reduce, make PP standards product supply 持续偏紧, month 看, PP wire drawing production ratio/proportion in 30%附近, degree lower slip to 27% low 位, this is 7 month 份PP走势 ratio PE more is causes 之一. 进入8 month rear, can and new this sleeve/set production standards product is plant/unit will 检修, and production capacity 75 10,000 tons, wire drawing supply 偏紧 状况 short inner difficult understanding, will for PP futures price formed 支撑.

         production capacity 投放存疑, short effect/influence has 限

        国 inner 方面, 2019 year polyolefin expand 张态势, PP supply increase speed will ultra- 9%, PE will ultra- 7%, upper semi year has can and Hengli start production, its in inner 蒙古久泰 can 源30 10,000 tons PE plant/unit and 35 10,000 tons PP plant/unit already in 5 month start production; Hengli 石化45 10,000 tons PP plant/unit already 于5 month 份顺利 start production. 8 month main/primary 关注东莞巨 positive 源60 10,000 tons PP plant/unit and in combined 35 10,000 tons PE and 35 10,000 tons PP plant/unit, according to most new 消息, 东莞巨 positive 源60 10,000 tons project due to PDH plant/unit still in 消缺, polymerization plant/unit will 倒开车 production, currently 停车待 material, time 待定, in combined already 于6 month 底试车, 8 month has start production 预期. 我们认 is, make this sleeve/set plant/unit can 够如期 start production, to production capacity time, for/regarding 8 month overall supply is effect/influence has 限.

        库存 water in and other, future has understanding

        6 month in 旬以, polyolefin decline obvious, to 7 month 初, PE and PP国 inner 库存均 lower slip 15% above, this is 6 month lower rise market trends main/primary 推手之一. however, price fall, lower procurement property reduce, speed degree 逐渐放缓, its in 7 month 26 day inner PE库存 month-on-month 7 month 19 day increase 2.12%, its in upper production enterprise PE库存 month-on-month increase 6.05%,连续3周累库, 而PP情况稍 good, in 连续两周 累库之 rear, 7 month again 次进入 库节奏, its in 7 month 26 day inner PP库存 month-on-month 7 month 19 day decline 2.18%, enterprise PP库存 month-on-month 7 month 19 day decline 1.24%.

         although lower 游终端一直维持 low 库存操 as, remove rigid procurement outer, overall 接货意愿 relatively low, is 随 8 month 份检修旺季 to, 石化库存 has 望持续 化, degree pressure versus for relatively small.

        棚 film demand 逐渐启动, PP demand unchanged 稳

        PE demand 方面, 7 month film construction start small improves, currently 华北 区部 separation in large type enterprise construction start rate in 3-6 formed, 以山东, 天津, and other is 主, other production 依然清淡. according to lower 游调研情况, currently 山东 区农 film enterprise market trends generally, overall construction start rate in 3 formed left right. film demand good 转, large in type factory construction start rate in 4-6 formed. 进入8 month rear, 随 棚 film 旺季临近, demand increase, PE demand has 望进一步 good 转.

        PP demand 方面, overall 变化不 large, its in home appliances output/production volume in has increase, data 显示, 1-6 month 份空调 output/production volume year-on-year increase speed 10.2%, output/production volume year-on-year increase speed 4.5%, machine output/production volume year-on-year increase speed 9.2%. is need attention/notes is, 5 month add tariff will effect/influence China home appliances industry for USA export, to in recent years export to USA and 冰箱占总 export volume 20% left right, add 征25% tariff, for home appliances export effect/influence relatively large, due to home appliances in plastics ratio year improves, upper tariff rear effect/influence will in degree 逐步显现.

        结论 and as

        进入8 month rear, plant/unit 检修逐渐 increase more, make overall supply decrease/reduce, make PP标 product supply 持续偏紧, meanwhile, to new plant/unit start production in very large 不确定 property, new production capacity for month supply effect/influence has 限, lower 游方面, 随 棚 film 旺季临近, film demand increase, for PE demand will 进一步 increase, in addition, home appliances output/production volume growth and automotive output/production volume degree 回暖预期也 will good PP demand, 我们认 is rear polyolefin price or strong/high 震荡. product types sleeve/set 利方面, to alcohol high lower short inner difficult has solution, in MTO new plant/unit 落 之 front, PP-3MA价差 still has expand large. factors: in trade 争端以 and and other